USD\/JPY, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,50\u2019ye yak\u0131n seviyeden 157,60\u2019a yak\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyeye geriledikten sonra pazartesi yatay seyretti. %0,1\u2019in alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 158,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 158,50-159,20 aras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 piplik bantta kald\u0131 (pip: kurda en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131).<\/p>\n
Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD, Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde \u0130ran bayrakl\u0131 Touska adl\u0131 y\u00fck gemisine el koydu. 8 Nisan\u2019da ilan edilen iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona ermesi bekleniyor; Ba\u015fkan Trump, ate\u015fkesin o ak\u015fam bitece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, \u0130slamabad g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ikinci turunun kesin olarak planland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 reddetti. \u0130ran, 18 Nisan\u2019da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131; WTI tipi ham petrol 89 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (WTI: ABD\u2019de referans al\u0131nan ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc).<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n kritik ABD verileri: sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) ve per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; ekonomik faaliyetin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er). Japonya cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fclke geneli T\u00dcFE\u2019yi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni anketi de yay\u0131mlanacak.<\/p>\n
15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte USD\/JPY 158,83 seviyesinde ve g\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan 159,18\u2019in alt\u0131nda. Stokastik RSI 67\u2019ye yak\u0131n (Stokastik RSI: RSI\u2019\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m sinyali \u00fcreten teknik g\u00f6sterge). Diren\u00e7 159,18 civar\u0131nda (diren\u00e7: y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye).<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte parite 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 158,15\u2019in ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 154,60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 (EMA: \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verir). Stokastik RSI 21,19 seviyesinde. Haberin teknik b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n 158,80 civar\u0131nda karars\u0131z kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, sakin kur hareketi ile \u0130ran\u2019la artan jeopolitik gerilim aras\u0131nda belirgin uyumsuzluk g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ate\u015fkes son tarihi, \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fc tek bir sonuca ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir risk (ikili olay: iki olas\u0131l\u0131k; uzatma ya da biti\u015f). Piyasa bu riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu rahatl\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni yeniden \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d rol\u00fcn\u00fc kazan\u0131rsa riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanabilir (risk-off: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi). \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda vadesi dolacak USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zararla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r). Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde bozulma olursa sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flarken, gerilim azal\u0131r ve parite yeniden y\u00fckselirse s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z zarara maruz b\u0131rakmaz (tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk: en fazla \u00f6denecek primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zarar).<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkesin bozulmas\u0131, WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden 100 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor. 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fgali, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 haftada %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckseltmi\u015f ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 (oynakl\u0131k\/volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131). O d\u00f6nemde USD\/JPY, faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; ancak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, yeni lehine daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131m\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenecek temel g\u00f6sterge, ima edilen volatilite (implied volatility) (ima edilen volatilite: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) ve \u015fu an d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor. \u00c7ar\u015famba son tarihi, bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmadan ge\u00e7erse kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerinin h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Bu nedenle oynakl\u0131k pahal\u0131la\u015fmadan \u00f6nce koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon almak daha do\u011fru olur.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 158,15 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi i\u00e7in kritik savunma hatt\u0131 (hareketli ortalama: fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131; trendi g\u00f6sterir). Olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bu seviyenin alt\u0131na ini\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bozuldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterebilir ve 154,60 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 belirgin de\u011fer kazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar rahat m\u0131, f\u0131rt\u0131na m\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131yor? USD\/JPY 158,50-159,20 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran gerilimi ve \u00e7ar\u015famba ate\u015fkes riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlan\u0131yor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ima edilen volatilitede put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45066\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}