USD\/JPY Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. ABD dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 bir anla\u015fma umuduyla \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Ancak sat\u0131\u015flar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f Japon yenini bask\u0131lad\u0131 ve pariteyi bir ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren bant i\u00e7inde tuttu.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 158,75 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 159,20 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bo\u015fluk b\u0131rakt\u0131ktan sonra 98,49\u2019u g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 98,00 civar\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD deniz ablukas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 ate\u015fkes ihlallerini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131. ABD Donanmas\u0131 Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde bir \u0130ran kargo gemisini durdurup gemiye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u0130ran misilleme tehdidinde bulunurken, abluka kalkmad\u0131k\u00e7a yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol referans\u0131) 87,35 dolar civar\u0131nda; ge\u00e7en haftaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Japonya net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 (enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan alan \u00fclke) oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7 maliyetleri y\u00fckseltebilir.<\/p>\n
Pakistan\u2019\u0131n arabuluculu\u011funda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilen ikinci tur bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin, iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona ermesinden \u00f6nce Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ate\u015fkesi uzatmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cson derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve anla\u015fma imzalanmadan bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131rken b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de zay\u0131flatabilir; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) beklentilerini etkiliyor. Reuters, BoJ\u2019un bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 geciktirebilece\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n verileri aras\u0131nda ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi), \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI\u2019lar (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; ekonomik faaliyetin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan anket) ve Japonya Ulusal T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 158,75 \u00e7evresinde dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00f6n\u00fc ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonucu belirleyecek. Piyasa, ate\u015fkesin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bitmesi \u00f6ncesinde bekle-g\u00f6r modunda; bu durum beklenen oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyon olan straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m\/call hem sat\u0131m\/put opsiyonu alma) bu d\u00f6nemde anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; parite sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu stratejide \u00f6denen prim (opsiyonun pe\u015fin maliyeti) azami zarard\u0131r; man\u015fet riskinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ortamda bu, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n
Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de put (sat\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalan\u0131r) almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan pozisyon almak demektir. Gerilimin azalmas\u0131 petrol\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir; ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki enerji \u015foklar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi bu, yen i\u00e7in destekleyicidir. 2024\u2019te enerji ithalat maliyetleri nedeniyle Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir ayda 1,7 trilyon yenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131rsa, bunun tersine d\u00f6nmesi JPY\u2019yi belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Tersine, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekleyenler i\u00e7in call (al\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalan\u0131r) almak yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k anlam\u0131na gelir. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 petrol\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir ve ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) talebini art\u0131rarak pariteyi yukar\u0131 itebilir. Bu senaryoda 160 seviyesi test edilebilir; burada Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan m\u00fcdahale (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasa i\u015flemi) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda yen savunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 9,8 trilyon yenlik rekor harcama yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik gerilim, merkez bankalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da tabloyu zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; yaln\u0131zca faiz beklentilerine bakarak i\u015flem yapmak g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015fiyor. Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131 olursa Fed faiz indirimlerini ertelemek zorunda kalabilir; bu, 2024\u2019te inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun ilk indirim beklentilerini \u00f6telemesine benzer. BoJ ise b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u0131\u015f \u015fok kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, politikay\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmekte (\u00e7ok gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) zorlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden sahneye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: Dolar 158,75\u2019te geri \u00e7ekilirken petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 yeni bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Ate\u015fkes ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek; opsiyon piyasas\u0131 straddle ile oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45054","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45054"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45054\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}