Commerzbank, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) politika faizi karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendirdi. Banka, TCMB\u2019nin anketine at\u0131fla 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisinin Mart ay\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k %25\u2019ten (y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131k %28\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini belirtti. <\/p>\n
Raporda, beklentilerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirildi\u011fi, ancak beklentilerin bunun \u00f6ncesinde de aylard\u0131r y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ifade edildi. Ayr\u0131ca TCMB rezervlerinin, liray\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (m\u00fcdahale) ve di\u011fer k\u0131sa vadeli ad\u0131mlar nedeniyle geriledi\u011fi kaydedildi. <\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan ile Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek, IMF konferans\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar, yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda teredd\u00fct sinyali verdi\u011fini aktard\u0131. <\/p>\n
Commerzbank, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve\/veya finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131ran ad\u0131m) bekliyor. Daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika gelmemesi halinde, piyasalar\u0131n lira riskini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla (risk alg\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re yeni fiyat olu\u015fmas\u0131) USD\/TRY\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fini belirtti. <\/p>\n
TCMB anketinde y\u0131l sonu USD\/TRY tahmini Nisan\u2019daki 50,97\u2019den 51,23\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 12 ay sonras\u0131 beklenti 52,70\u2019ten 53,62\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, Commerzbank\u2019\u0131n tahmini 55,00 seviyesinde. <\/p>\n
T\u00fcrk merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n son karar s\u00fcrecinde de endi\u015fe edildi\u011fi gibi temkinli davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelmemesi, beklenen lira sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. USD\/TRY 53,00 seviyesini a\u015farak piyasada riskin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yeniden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. <\/p>\n
Bu hareketin arkas\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015fmeyen enflasyon var. Mart 2026 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan son veriler y\u0131ll\u0131k %35\u2019e beklenmedik \u015fekilde y\u00fckselirken, y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k %28 beklentisi iyimser kal\u0131yor. Net d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n swap\/emanet gibi kalemler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra elinde kalan kullan\u0131labilir d\u00f6vizi) son d\u00f6nemde 15 milyar dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011fine ili\u015fkin haberler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla (m\u00fcdahale) kuru savunma kapasitesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Piyasa, geriye kalan tek inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 arac\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, lirada \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in 55,00 hatta 58,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi sabit kur seviyesi) USD\/TRY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call: kur y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Bu da piyasan\u0131n bir toparlanmaya de\u011fil, daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler TCMB\u2019de: Commerzbank, y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentileri ve eriyen rezervler nedeniyle s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bekliyor. Aksi halde lira riski yeniden fiyatlan\u0131r, USD\/TRY y\u00fckselir; piyasada 55-58 call talebi art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45050\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}