G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 79,75 dolara geriledi; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,30 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 83 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki son bir ay\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra fiyat geri \u00e7ekildi. Piyasalar, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimi yeniden de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n (donanman\u0131n giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 engellemesi) ard\u0131ndan geldi ve ABD tipi ham petrol olan West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fiyat\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolara do\u011fru itti.<\/p>\n
ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde bir \u0130ran y\u00fck gemisini durdurup gemiye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n (kontrol ama\u00e7l\u0131 m\u00fcdahale) ard\u0131ndan gerilim artt\u0131. \u0130ran, Pakistan\u2019da planlanan bir sonraki m\u00fczakerelere kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu durum, mevcut ate\u015fkes \u00e7er\u00e7evesine (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n nas\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fine dair d\u00fczen) dair soru i\u015faretlerini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelirken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep artt\u0131. Petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi beklentisi, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131n (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi yapmayan) ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn cazibesini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00f6n tayini i\u00e7in Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri izliyor. Bu haftan\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde ayr\u0131ca ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi ve S&P Global Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI) \u00f6nc\u00fc anketleri var. (PMI, \u015firketlerin sipari\u015f, \u00fcretim ve istihdam gibi alanlarda geni\u015fleme mi daralma m\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren erken sinyaldir.)<\/p>\n
Petrole do\u011frudan etki net: g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil arz\u0131n kesintiye u\u011frama riski olu\u015ftu. Bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, 2025 yaz\u0131nda K\u00f6rfez\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve sadece ge\u00e7ici bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 yaratan deniz tatbikatlar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha sert g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, WTI \u00fczerinde \u201czarar kesmesi\u201d daha zor ama \u201cy\u00fcksek kazan\u00e7\u201d ihtimali bar\u0131nd\u0131ran, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (out-of-the-money call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011ferlenen opsiyon) veya USO gibi petrol ETF\u2019lerini (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) de\u011ferlendirebilir; varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95-100 dolar band\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclatif hedef olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zorlanan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi de\u011ferli metaller i\u00e7in olumsuz bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in politika faizi (Fed Funds Rate; bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizini belirleyen ana g\u00f6sterge) %4,75\u2019te kal\u0131rken, petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in planlanan faiz indirimlerinin ertelenmesi ihtimali faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrerse g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131 beklentisiyle g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde veya SLV gibi g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011ferlenen opsiyon) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve PMI verileri, ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Federal Reserve) \u015fahin (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) duru\u015funu korumas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Zay\u0131f bir veri ise enerji maliyetleri y\u00fckselirken resesyon (ekonomik daralma) endi\u015felerini b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir. Bu verilerin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in ileti\u015fimini \u015fekillendirece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde piyasalarda sert hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc vurdu: XAG\/USD 79,75 dolara inip %1,3 geriledi. Petrol 88 dolara t\u0131rman\u0131rken dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, Fed\u2019in indirimi \u00f6telenebilir. G\u00f6zler ABD sat\u0131\u015flar\/PMI verilerinde, zirve sonras\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45048\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}