USD\/CAD Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 seansta gerileyerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3709 civar\u0131ndaki zirvesinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3663 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, haftaya yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc **fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu** (*bullish gap: a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi*) ile ba\u015flayan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Hafta sonunda \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirilen ate\u015fkes ihlallerini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131. Pakistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti\u011fi bir diplomatik giri\u015fime dair haberler, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik **g\u00fcvenli liman talebini** (*riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen para birimi talebi*) azaltt\u0131 ve Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019da Mart **T\u00dcFE** (*CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7er*) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,9 artt\u0131. Bu oran \u015eubat\u2019taki %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde, ancak %1,1 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE %1,8\u2019den %2,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; %2,5 tahmininin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
**\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE** (*g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon*) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131 ve \u015eubat\u2019taki %0,4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na indi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek oran %2,3\u2019ten %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Veriler, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemindeki toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeleri izliyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona erecek iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan bu hafta ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ate\u015fkesi uzatmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cson derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal\u201d oldu\u011funu ve anla\u015fma imzalanana kadar bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131 ve benzer bir hareketin tekrar\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k. Mart 2025\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE %2,4 iken, Mart 2026\u2019n\u0131n son verisi enflasyonun %2,9 ile daha **inat\u00e7\u0131** (*kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, kal\u0131c\u0131*) seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum BoC \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki kadar bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoC 2025\u2019te temkinliydi; ancak sonras\u0131nda faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flad\u0131 ve **politika faizi** (*merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131*) %4,25 seviyesinde. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi %5,00\u2019te kal\u0131yor. Bu durum ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine belirgin bir **faiz fark\u0131 \/ getiri avantaj\u0131** (*iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n, daha y\u00fcksek faiz veren para birimini cazip k\u0131lmas\u0131*) yarat\u0131yor. Bu faiz fark\u0131 USD\/CAD i\u00e7in temel destek unsuru olmaya devam edebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l **oynakl\u0131k** (*fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131*) daha \u00e7ok H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin tekil haberlere ba\u011fl\u0131yd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn **opsiyon piyasas\u0131** (*belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa*) g\u00f6stergeleri, **z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n** (*implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k*) tek bir kriz ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama endi\u015feleriyle desteklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019nda uzayan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/CAD\u2019de **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (*call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131*) almak.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te bahsi ge\u00e7en zay\u0131f ekonomik zeminde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iyile\u015fme var: Kanada\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %6,1\u2019den %5,8\u2019e gerilese de h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek. Bu temel ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve faiz fark\u0131 birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019nda kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fer kazanc\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin olu\u015fmuyor. Bu nedenle USD\/CAD\u2019deki geri \u00e7ekilmeler **al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131** olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: USD\/CAD alt\u0131 seansta d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,3663\u2019e indi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve diplomasi g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131, CAD g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Kanada T\u00dcFE beklenti alt\u0131; faiz fark\u0131 USD\u2019yi destekliyor, geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45042"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45042\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}