Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinin, Per\u015fembe ba\u015flayacak \u201csessizlik d\u00f6nemi\u201d (toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yetkililerin konu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem) \u00f6ncesinde haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda konu\u015fmalar\u0131 bekleniyor. Mesajlar, ECB\u2019nin gerekirse faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu, ancak daha fazla veri g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in beklemeyi tercih etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. <\/p>\n
Piyasalar 30 Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini sildi. \u015eu anda Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
ING, Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. EUR\/USD i\u00e7in dengeli seviyeyi 1,17 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
Bu haftaki euro b\u00f6lgesi verilerinde odak anketlerde. Almanya ZEW endeksi yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; euro b\u00f6lgesi Nisan PMI\u2019lar\u0131 (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: \u015firketlerde faaliyet ve e\u011filimi \u00f6l\u00e7en anket g\u00f6stergesi) Per\u015fembe, Almanya Ifo endeksi (i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcven anketi) ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc gelecek. <\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131 i\u015f anketleri beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi. Odak, Nisan\u2019da ko\u015fullar\u0131n zay\u0131flay\u0131p zay\u0131flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. <\/p>\n
ECB yetkililerinden, bu Per\u015fembe ba\u015flayacak sessizlik d\u00f6nemi \u00f6ncesinde \u00e7ok say\u0131da a\u00e7\u0131klama geliyor. Mesaj net: Gerekirse faiz art\u0131rabilirler, ancak daha fazla veri i\u00e7in beklemeyi tercih ediyorlar. Piyasa 30 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tamamen devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS: politika faizine dayal\u0131 faiz takas\u0131; piyasadaki faiz beklentisini g\u00f6sterir) Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin biraz alt\u0131nda g\u00f6steriyor; yine de bizim beklentimiz o tarihte ad\u0131m atacaklar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. <\/p>\n
Bu \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d duru\u015f (kararlar\u0131n gelen ekonomik verilere g\u00f6re \u015fekillenmesi), bu haftaki i\u015f anketlerini daha kritik hale getiriyor: Almanya ZEW, euro b\u00f6lgesi PMI\u2019lar\u0131 ve Ifo. Mart anketleri beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dayan\u0131kl\u0131yd\u0131. Ancak son veriler Almanya sanayi \u00fcretiminin \u015eubat\u2019ta %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve man\u015fet enflasyonun (genel enflasyon) ge\u00e7en ay %2,7\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi i\u00e7in temkinliyiz. Ek yava\u015flama sinyalleri, ECB\u2019nin bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. <\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu tablo, EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; parite 1,1850 \u00fczerindeki hareketleri kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ram\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (call opsiyonu: belli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya 1,1950 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla ay\u0131 call spread\u2019i (bear call spread: \u00fcst bantta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\/yatay beklentisine g\u00f6re kurulan opsiyon stratejisi) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kurun dengeli seviyesini 1,17\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %5,8\u2019e indi; bu y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n. Bu da piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi beklemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. <\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde (2025) g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz daha net politika y\u00f6n\u00fcnden farkl\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) da beklemede. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed Funds futures: piyasan\u0131n Fed faizi beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte faiz de\u011fi\u015fimi ihtimalini neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r g\u00f6steriyor; bu nedenle paritede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. \u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n benzer \u00e7izgide kalmas\u0131, \u015fimdilik daha yatay bantta bir piyasay\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB sessizlik \u00f6ncesi \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131 sab\u0131r\u201d mesaj\u0131 veriyor: 30 Nisan rafa kalkt\u0131, Haziran art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %50. G\u00f6zler ZEW-PMI-Ifo\u2019da; zay\u0131flama EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,17 dengeyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45038\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}