Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar) i\u015faret ediyordu, ancak Washington\u2019daki IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeler daha temkinliydi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, baz\u0131 tahmincilerin Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 28 Nisan\u2019daki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Reuters anketine g\u00f6re BoJ\u2019u izleyenlerin 3\u2019te 2\u2019si Haziran sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Anket, Nisan veya Haziran\u2019da ad\u0131m at\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n benzer g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Son yurti\u00e7i veriler, \u015eubat ay\u0131nda reel \u00fccretlerin (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,9 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu veri, yurti\u00e7i talebin (\u00fclke i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim ve harcamalar\u0131n) g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Mart ay\u0131 ulusal T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ortalama de\u011fi\u015fim; enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) verisi 24 Nisan\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli politika y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendirirken bu veriyi yak\u0131ndan izlemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Son IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n temkinli tonu, Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu durum, bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da en az Nisan kadar olas\u0131 bir ad\u0131m zaman\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Artan belirsizlik, t\u00fcrev (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. opsiyon) piyasas\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu karars\u0131zl\u0131k yen opsiyonlar\u0131na (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yans\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nceki yakla\u015f\u0131k %9,0 seviyesinden %11,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu, BoJ 28 Nisan\u2019da ad\u0131m ats\u0131n ya da atmas\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n yende sert bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, toplant\u0131ya kadar bu y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini beklemesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler 24 Nisan Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ulusal T\u00dcFE verisinde. Piyasa, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve taze g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon; daha kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir) i\u00e7in %2,7 tahminini izliyor. Bu veri, \u015eubat\u2019taki %1,9\u2019luk reel \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi teyit ederse \u00f6nemli olacak. Beklentiyi a\u015fan bir enflasyon, Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, Nisan sonu vadeli USD\/JPY straddle veya strangle gibi ara\u00e7larla oynakl\u0131k almak (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin etmeden b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek) daha temkinli bir strateji olabilir. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almay\u0131; strangle ise farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almay\u0131 ifade eder. T\u00dcFE ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse, daha y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler (\u00f6r. yen al\u0131m opsiyonu almak) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bilmecesi b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: Ueda\u2019n\u0131n temkinli tonu Nisan ihtimalini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasan\u0131n 3\u2019te 2\u2019si Haziran\u2019a kadar art\u0131\u015f bekliyor; T\u00dcFE ve yen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45036","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45036"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45036\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}