BNP Paribas, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde 2025\u2019te GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %1,5, 2026\u2019da %1,6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026 sonuna kadar her \u00e7eyrekte %0,5 ile istikrarl\u0131 seyretmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tahmin; Almanya\u2019daki maliye politikas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131 (kamu harcamalar\u0131\/vergi d\u00fczenlemeleri), artan askeri harcamalar ve Avrupa\u2019da yapay zek\u00e2ya ba\u011fl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlara dayan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik dengesi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Banka, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 bir \u201cenerji \u015foku\u201dnu (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015f) da senaryoya dahil ediyor. Bu durumun 2026\u2019da ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u00fc\u00e7 kez faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor: Haziran, Temmuz ve Eyl\u00fcl.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoda ECB mevduat faizi (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 fazla paraya uygulanan faiz) %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckselecek. Banka, bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n (para politikas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi) b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne belirsizlik ekledi\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Makalede, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rlan\u0131p bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Temel risk, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) yeniden y\u00fckselmesi. Brent petrol (Kuzey Denizi referans ham petrol fiyat\u0131) son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak bir y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu durum, enflasyon \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc tahmin\u201d verilerini (resmi veri \u00f6ncesi h\u0131zl\u0131 hesaplama) do\u011frudan etkileyerek, 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bozulmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak piyasada, ECB\u2019nin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n) bir \u00e7izgiye d\u00f6nerek Haziran\u2019dan itibaren pe\u015f pe\u015fe \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapabilece\u011fi beklentisi konu\u015fuluyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu de\u011fi\u015fime en do\u011frudan tepki veren alan k\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasalar\u0131. Mevduat faizinin Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar %2,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n, vadeli piyasalar\u0131n (ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlama yapan kontratlar) bu art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu ortamda faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 (sabit faiz\u2013de\u011fi\u015fken faiz takas s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) veya EURIBOR\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemlerde (Euro bankalar aras\u0131 faiz oran\u0131na endeksli futures) sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanma amac\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Artan faizler ve jeopolitik gerilim, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckseltebilir. VSTOXX endeksi (Avrupa hisse senedi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) zaten yukar\u0131 gidiyor; bu da korunma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. EURO STOXX 50 gibi ana endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumada kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Belirsizli\u011fin kayna\u011f\u0131 olan enerji piyasas\u0131, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinden f\u0131rsat da sunuyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksakl\u0131klar\u2014d\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %20\u2019den fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131\u2014enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanman\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde opsiyonlarla \u201cspread\u201d (fark stratejisi: ayn\u0131 varl\u0131kta farkl\u0131 vade\/strike fiyat kombinasyonlar\u0131) kurmak, bu dalgalanmay\u0131 i\u015flem konusu yaparken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlama y\u00f6ntemi olabilir.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131nda ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in 2022\u2019deki politika tepkisi \u00f6rnek veriliyor. O d\u00f6nemde banka, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan \u015fokla rekor enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 faizleri k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede negatif b\u00f6lgeden %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, \u00e7ok ad\u0131ml\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f serisinin yeniden m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 100$\u2019\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nca ECB alarm verebilir! BNP Paribas, Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 2025\u2019te %1,5, 2026\u2019da %1,6 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; enerji \u015fokuyla 2026\u2019da \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, mevduatta %2,75 bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45033"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45033\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}