LME\u2019de (Londra Metal Borsas\u0131) al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail ile Hizbullah aras\u0131nda 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes s\u0131ras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %5,5\u2019ten fazla geriledi. Bo\u011faz, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u015fubat sonundan bu yana kapal\u0131yd\u0131. Arz\u0131n (piyasaya sunulan miktar\u0131n) aksamas\u0131 nedeniyle fiyatlar ge\u00e7en hafta d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bo\u011faz hafta sonu yeniden kapand\u0131. Bu da arz riski ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131kta aksama endi\u015fesini yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu, k\u00fcresel al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %9\u2019unu sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve Avrupa i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kaynak konumunda.<\/p>\n
Aksama sadece sevkiyat\u0131 de\u011fil, \u00fcretimi de etkiliyor. Bu nedenle al\u00fcminyum piyasas\u0131nda \u201cyap\u0131sal a\u00e7\u0131k\u201dtan s\u00f6z ediliyor; yani arz\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre talebi kar\u015f\u0131layamamas\u0131 riski var. Kesintiler s\u00fcrerse fiyatlarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Emirates Global Aluminium\u2019in (EGA) Al Taweelah izabe tesisindeki (al\u00fcminyumun y\u00fcksek \u0131s\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi fabrika) sorunlar, Alba\u2019daki daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcretim ve Qatalum\u2019daki \u00f6nceki kapasite k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 milyon ton kapasiteyi devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakabilir. Bu, Orta Do\u011fu \u00fcretiminin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131na denk geliyor ve k\u00fcresel arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 2 milyon tona \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130zabe tesisleri kapand\u0131ktan sonra yeniden devreye almak zordur; bu da arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle fiyatlar k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalara ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalabilir.<\/p>\n
LME verilerine g\u00f6re, borsaya kay\u0131tl\u0131 al\u00fcminyum stoklar\u0131 (LME depolar\u0131nda izlenen fiziksel metal) bu ay 450 bin tonun alt\u0131na indi. Bu seviye 15 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Piyasadaki bu fiziksel k\u0131tl\u0131k, ge\u00e7en hafta fiyatlar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine ton ba\u015f\u0131na 3.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bu temeller, son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Jeopolitik tablo belirsizli\u011fini koruyor; olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, potansiyel kazanc\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131rken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satma; maliyeti azalt\u0131r, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in opsiyonlar pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Bu y\u00f6ntem y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131r ancak tek ba\u015f\u0131na al\u0131m opsiyonu almaya g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetlidir ve sermayeyi daha verimli kullan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r haberiyle LME al\u00fcminyum %5,5 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc; bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden kapanmas\u0131 arz \u015fokunu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da 3 milyon ton risk, LME stoklar\u0131 15 y\u0131l dipte: dalga sert.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45030\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}