GBP\/JPY, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilimlerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithal enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle yenin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi ve iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Parite, ge\u00e7en hafta Temmuz 2008\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 215,91\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 214,78 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Hafta sonu H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 geri al\u0131nd\u0131 ve \u0130ran g\u00fczerg\u00e2h \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden vurgulad\u0131. \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (gemilerin giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiilen engelleyen askeri tedbir) ate\u015fkes \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131n ihlali olarak g\u00f6sterirken, ABD Donanmas\u0131 Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde bir \u0130ran kargo gemisini durdurup gemiye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve arama yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon riskini (fiyatlar\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyindeki art\u0131\u015f) art\u0131rarak merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n planlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz indirimlerini geciktirebilir; Japonya taraf\u0131nda ise artan ithalat maliyeti, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) \u201cpolitika normalle\u015fmesi\u201dni (\u00e7ok gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) yava\u015flatabilir.<\/p>\n
Reuters, be\u015f kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 pazartesi tarihli haberinde, BoJ\u2019un yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in beklemeye ge\u00e7mesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131. Haberde bu beklenti, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme ihtimalinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ba\u011fland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta oda\u011fa \u0130ngiltere i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri, enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 ve Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar; Japonya\u2019da ise Ulusal T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en temel enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) geliyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde GBP\/JPY, 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat) 212,98 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 211,21 \u00fczerinde. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: momentum\/ivme g\u00f6stergesi) 60,82\u2019de, ADX (Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) 18,90 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, sterlinin yene kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 20 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %99\u2019dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etmesi (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan almas\u0131) para birimi \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu tablo, GBP\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131ktan t\u00fcretilen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. opsiyon) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin faiz indirimlerini ertelemek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun sterlini destekleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon kat\u0131 seyrini koruyor; Mart 2026 verisinde T\u00dcFE %3,5 ile %2 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde. Bu nedenle, BoE\u2019nin yaz aylar\u0131 boyunca s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) korumas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak i\u015flemler planlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BoJ, faizleri h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rma konusunda temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. BoJ\u2019un Mart 2024\u2019te negatif faiz politikas\u0131ndan (faizin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nem) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve enerji ithalat maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatma riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Bu \u00e7ekingenlik, yenin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131na katk\u0131 yapabilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsurlardan biri.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 4\u20136 hafta vadeli GBP\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 f\u0131rsat sunabilir. 215,91\u2019deki son zirvenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 yeni al\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir; bu durumda 218,00 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket hedeflenebilir. 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama \u00e7evresindeki 213,00 b\u00f6lgesi, pozisyonlar\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in kritik destek olarak izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu haftan\u0131n \u00f6nemli makro verileri, bu stratejinin ana riskidir. \u0130ngiltere enflasyonunda s\u00fcrpriz bir gerileme veya zay\u0131f istihdam verisi sterlini h\u0131zla bask\u0131layabilir. Benzer \u015fekilde Japonya\u2019da beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir enflasyon verisi BoJ\u2019u daha kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmaya iterek yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc y\u00fcksek tutarken enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Japon yeni bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: GBP\/JPY 214,78\u2019e toparland\u0131, 215,91 zirvesi g\u00fcndemde. BoE kesintiyi erteleyebilir, BoJ temkinli; opsiyonla 218 hedefi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45028\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}