Japon yeni, hem ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana hem de y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana G10 para birimleri i\u00e7inde en zay\u0131f olan\u0131. USD\/JPY, ge\u00e7en ay\u0131n sonunda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra, parite daha da y\u00fckselirse Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (kurdan sorumlu otorite) m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi endi\u015feleriyle 160 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yakla\u015fan politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc belirlemesi bekleniyor. BoJ gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131rmazsa USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir; bu da Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahalesini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
BoJ 28 Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamazsa, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Haziran\u2019da art\u0131\u015fa gidilebilece\u011fine dair y\u00f6nlendirmeye (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ileride ne yapabilece\u011fine dair mesaj) kayabilir. Ne faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ne de net bir Haziran sinyali gelirse, 160 seviyesinin yeniden test edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artar.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n karar organ\u0131 olan Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) bu y\u0131l h\u00e2l\u00e2 faiz indirimi plan\u0131n\u0131 masada tutup tutmamas\u0131na da ba\u011fl\u0131. Rabobank\u2019\u0131n ana senaryosuna g\u00f6re USD\/JPY \u00fc\u00e7 ayda 158, alt\u0131 ayda 152,00 seviyesinde; bu tahmin, BoJ\u2019un \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yak\u0131n) ve Fed\u2019in \u201cgev\u015femeye e\u011filimli\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yen bu y\u0131l yine G10\u2019un en zay\u0131f para birimi konumunda ve dolar\/yen paritesi 160 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Bu tablo, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edece\u011fi korkusunu yeniden art\u0131r\u0131yor. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te yetkililer, kur bu e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcama yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi gelecek hafta, 27 Nisan\u2019da yap\u0131lacak BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmese de, Haziran i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir mesaj verilmemesi pariteyi kolayca 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. B\u00f6yle bir hareket, finansal otoritelerin tepki vermesini b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla zorunlu k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
3 May\u0131s\u2019taki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 da paritenin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyecek. Son ABD enflasyon verileri inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretti; en son \u00e7ekirdek PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8 geldi. Bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi sinyali vermesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. FOMC\u2019den \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir ton, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, dolar\/yen\u2019de do\u011frudan uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak, ani ve sert bir ters hareket riski nedeniyle \u00e7ok riskli. Daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak, 1\u20133 ay vadeli JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, yenin toparlanmas\u0131 durumunda kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunarken, azami zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131).<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale tehdidinin s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcndemde olmas\u0131, ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek tutuyor. 1 ayl\u0131k volatilite \u015fu anda %11,2 ile y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,5 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde. Bu ortam, merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketi bekleyip y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayanlar i\u00e7in opsiyon \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d stratejilerini (iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece, ister 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir atak olsun ister m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete yakalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011far.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen G10\u2019un en zay\u0131f\u0131; USD\/JPY 160 e\u015fi\u011finde. BoJ\u2019un faiz ve Haziran sinyali, Fed\u2019in tonu y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek. 160 \u00fczeri m\u00fcdahale riskini art\u0131r\u0131rken, y\u00fcksek volatilite opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45027\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}