TD Securities, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta \u015eubat i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verilerinin dengelenmeye i\u015faret edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki %5,2 seviyesinden %5,1\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilemesini bekliyor (piyasa beklentisi: %5,2). \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise 50 bin olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor; bu rakam piyasa tahmini olan 35 binin \u00fczerinde, \u00f6nceki veri olan 84 binin ise alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Banka, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm g\u00f6stergelerde yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Buna g\u00f6re AWE\u2019nin (Ortalama Haftal\u0131k Kazan\u00e7; \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n haftal\u0131k ortalama br\u00fct \u00fccretini g\u00f6steren veri) 3 ay\/y\u0131l baz\u0131nda %3,6, ikramiyeler hari\u00e7 AWE\u2019nin %3,5 ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r kazan\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %3,2 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu son tahmin piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131yla uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Veriler \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesine ait oldu\u011fu ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc verileri genelde gecikmeli geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in TD Securities, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (MPC; \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) g\u00fcncel \u00fccret e\u011filimlerinden \u00e7ok enflasyon beklentilerine odaklanabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u015eubat i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc verileri \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yava\u015flamayla birlikte beklenen \u201cdengelenme\u201d tablosunu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu da o d\u00f6nemde \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyi daha rahat de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyordu. Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesine ait bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, jeopolitik riskler ve enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle art\u0131k ikinci planda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma enerji piyasalar\u0131nda sert dalgalanmaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131; Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride teslim edilmek \u00fczere bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 belirlenen petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) 2022 sonundan bu yana ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bunun sonucu olarak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fckseldi; YouGov\u2019un Nisan anketinde 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum MPC\u2019yi do\u011frudan enflasyona odaklanmaya zorluyor; eski \u00fccret verileri daha az \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ana i\u015flem temas\u0131n\u0131n oynakl\u0131k oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faizlerinin izleyece\u011fi yol art\u0131k \u00e7ok belirsiz. 3 ayl\u0131k sterlin opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) 2022\u2019deki \u201cmini-b\u00fct\u00e7e\u201d krizini hat\u0131rlatan seviyelere y\u00fckseldi. B\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanabilecek stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, merkez bankas\u0131 olas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile yeni bir enflasyon \u015foku aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Faiz vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131 (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine dair s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa) son haftalarda fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2026 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi ihtimalini tamamen sildi\u011fi, A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da %40 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, faizin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131 senaryoya g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ama\u00e7la SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleri (\u0130ngiltere gecelik faizine dayal\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullan\u0131labilir veya faiz swaplar\u0131nda (de\u011fi\u015fken faiz ile sabit faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6deme taraf\u0131nda kal\u0131narak artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eubat \u0130ngiltere istihdam\u0131nda dengelenme sinyali: i\u015fsizlik %5,1\u2019e inerken istihdam +50 bin. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor; ancak \u0130ran gerilimiyle petrol 110$ \u00fcst\u00fc, enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fckseldi, faiz patikas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45026\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}