H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde yeniden artan gerilim, Brent petrol\u00fc Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 86 dolarl\u0131k dip seviyesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 dolar y\u00fckseltti ve k\u00fcresel riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 (hisse senedi gibi dalgal\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131) bask\u0131lad\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131 ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa hareketleri, yeniden \u201cabluka\u201d endi\u015felerine ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi. ABD Donanmas\u0131 Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde bir \u0130ran gemisine el koyarken, \u0130ran yak\u0131nda misilleme yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 \u015fokun (ani petrol fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131) tamamen bitti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenmese de en k\u00f6t\u00fc k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geride kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131ld\u0131r izledi\u011fi 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi belirtildi. ABD ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclkenin politika faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) bu band\u0131 destekleyen unsur oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Wall Street Journal, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) veya ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile bir \u201cswap hatt\u0131\u201d (iki merkez bankas\u0131\/kurumun belirli s\u00fcreyle birbirine d\u00f6viz sa\u011flayabildi\u011fi likidite anla\u015fmas\u0131) se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Ama\u00e7, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 daha sert bir ekonomik \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131 \u201chedge\u201d etmek (riski azaltmak i\u00e7in koruma sa\u011flamak) olarak aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki de\u011ferlendirmeye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enerji \u015fokuna ra\u011fmen DXY\u2019nin 96,00-100,00 band\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc payla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde ge\u00e7erli olsa da piyasa dinami\u011finin (fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren ko\u015fullar\u0131n) belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dolar daha sonra bu band\u0131n \u00fczerine net bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve pozisyonlar\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn) yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesini gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ana etken, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131. Bu unsur ge\u00e7en y\u0131l da not edilmi\u015fti ancak art\u0131k daha belirgin. Fed, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na kadar inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kolay d\u00fc\u015fmemesi) verileri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutarken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) gibi di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi ve daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimli) bir yola i\u015faret etti. Fed politika faizinin %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, Avrupa\u2019da faizler d\u00fc\u015ferken dolar tutmay\u0131 (dolar varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131) \u00e7ok daha cazip hale getirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, \u00f6nceki bant beklentisine dayanarak \u201cvolatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynayan i\u015flemler) yapan t\u00fcrev (vadeli i\u015flem, opsiyon gibi) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in hesab\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. DXY\u2019nin 104,75 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda stratejilerin geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131ma y\u00f6nelmesi veya opsiyonlarla (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in pozisyonlanmas\u0131 daha uygun olabilir. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dolar oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi \u015fimdilik sona ermi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n bask\u0131n rol\u00fc, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l BAE\u2019nin Fed ile swap hatt\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmesiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; mevcut ortamda bu durum daha da peki\u015fti. K\u00fcresel belirsizlik \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201da (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen varl\u0131klara) y\u00f6nelimi art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ana rezerv paras\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok tuttu\u011fu para birimi) olan dolara yar\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, DXY\u2019de \u201ccall spread\u201d (bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 seviyeden ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, y\u00fckseli\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 k\u00e2r hedefleyen opsiyon stratejisi) kullanarak 2024 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 106,00 seviyesinin yeniden test edilmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi Brent\u2019i 10 dolar s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131, riskli varl\u0131klar bask\u0131land\u0131. Dolar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken DXY banttan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faizi destek, 106 hedefli opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45018\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}