OCBC stratejistleri Sim Moh Siong ve Christopher Wong, ABD\u2013\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji \u015fokundan sonra Japon devlet tahvili (JGB, Japonya Hazine tahvili) getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fti\u011fini bildiriyor. Bunun, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda soru i\u015faretleri do\u011furdu\u011funu; \u015eubat sonras\u0131 di\u011fer G10 piyasalar\u0131nda (10 b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke grubu) g\u00f6r\u00fclen e\u011fri yatayla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) tersine, Japonya\u2019da fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un 28 Nisan\u2019da faizi 25 baz puan (bp: faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,25\u2019i) art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar; ancak piyasadaki fiyatlama h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201c\u015fahin sabit tutma\u201dya (faizi art\u0131rmay\u0131p sert\/s\u0131k\u0131 mesaj vermek) da alan tan\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019un mevcut ko\u015fullara yeti\u015femedi\u011fi endi\u015fesinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da Nisan\u2019da ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00fckseltti\u011fini ekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
BoJ faiz art\u0131rmazsa USD\/JPY\u2019nin (dolar\/yen paritesi) 160\u2019l\u0131 seviyelere y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yorlar. Bunun, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahalesine (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini ve pariteyi 155\u2019e do\u011fru geri getirmeyi hedefleyebilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Maliye Bakan\u0131 Katayama\u2019n\u0131n son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n, harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olundu\u011funa i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. 2026 sonu USD\/JPY hedeflerini 155\u2019te koruyorlar.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131, JGB getiri e\u011frisindeki sert dikle\u015fmenin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00fczere artan bir inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enerji \u015fokunun ard\u0131ndan, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark 120 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, piyasan\u0131n BoJ\u2019un enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131) kontrol etmek i\u00e7in yeterince h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmedi\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
28 Nisan\u2019daki kritik toplant\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin bir art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %16\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; bu seviye y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde ve piyasan\u0131n \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d bir sonuca (iki olas\u0131l\u0131ktan birinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi) odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Straddle veya strangle (opsiyon kombinasyonu; y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan, fiyat b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket ederse kazanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan strateji) uygun olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131 sonucu hangi y\u00f6ne olursa olsun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n
BoJ beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmazsa USD\/JPY\u2019nin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 160-162 band\u0131na gidebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu olas\u0131 ta\u015fmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in 159 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 veren fiyat\u0131) k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu \u201c\u015fahin sabit tutma\u201d senaryosu, politika hatas\u0131 olarak okunabilir ve yenin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak 160 \u00fczerindeki bir hareket, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesini tetikler. 2022\u2019de bakanl\u0131k, yen 152\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131rken yeni savunmak i\u00e7in 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcama yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Katayama\u2019n\u0131n son uyar\u0131lar\u0131 benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor; bu da USD\/JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n, parite 155\u2019e do\u011fru geri itilirken h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde silinmesi riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan BoJ 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f yaparsa yenin hemen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi beklenir. Bu durumda sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) daha uygun ara\u00e7 olur; hedef USD\/JPY\u2019nin 155\u2019e do\u011fru geri gelmesidir. Bu sonu\u00e7, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n zedelenen inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen toparlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada alarm: ABD\u2013\u0130ran enerji \u015foku sonras\u0131 Japon tahvil e\u011frisi sert dikle\u015fti, BoJ\u2019un inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorgulan\u0131yor. 28 Nisan\u2019da 25 bp art\u0131\u015f gelmezse USD\/JPY 160+, m\u00fcdahale riski, oynakl\u0131k t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45014\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}