HSBC Asset Management, nisan ay\u0131nda risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) toparlanman\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131daki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi\u011fini belirtiyor. Kurum, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana performans\u0131n genel olarak yatay seyretti\u011fini ve bunun uzun vadeli \u201cdaha zay\u0131f dolar\u201d e\u011filimiyle uyumlu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik ve makroekonomik belirsizli\u011fin (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, faiz gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi g\u00f6stergelerine dair belirsizlik) oynakl\u0131k risklerini (fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131k ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) g\u00fcndemde tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca mart ay\u0131ndaki piyasa hareketlerinin, oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde dolardaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini ekliyor.<\/p>\n
HSBC, son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde dolar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da stresli piyasalarda dolar\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 nedenler aras\u0131nda kademeli \u201cde-dolarizasyonu\u201d (\u00fclkelerin ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolar kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve dolar varl\u0131klar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmas\u0131), ABD kamu maliyesine (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7 dinami\u011fi) dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ve kurumlar\u0131n g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine (hukukun \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, kurumsal i\u015fleyi\u015fe g\u00fcven) ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri s\u0131ral\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131na (beklenmedik h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket alan\u0131na sahip olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc de aktar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
HSBC, piyasan\u0131n \u201cgeni\u015f tabana yay\u0131lma\u201d (getirinin az say\u0131da varl\u0131k yerine daha \u00e7ok varl\u0131\u011fa da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131) hik\u00e2yesinin k\u0131smen kal\u0131c\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Son fiyat hareketlerinin bu senaryoyu 2026 i\u00e7in olas\u0131 k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, izlenen uzun vadeli zay\u0131f dolar trendini teyit ediyor. Kurum, piyasa stresi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar\u0131n tepkisinin temelden de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ve bu nedenle dolar\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savunuyor. Belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde dolar\u0131n olas\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum ge\u00e7en ayki piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: Dolar Endeksi (dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 105\u2019in biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu, 2023\u2019te bankac\u0131l\u0131k stresinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert y\u00fckseli\u015flerden belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131. Bu zay\u0131f tepki, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak dolar alma al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n eskisi kadar i\u015fe yaramayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 hareketinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni bir piyasa d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Trend, merkez bankas\u0131 rezerv verileriyle de destekleniyor. IMF\u2019nin 2025 4. \u00e7eyrek raporuna g\u00f6re dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel rezervlerdeki pay\u0131 %55\u2019e geriledi; 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %58 seviyesine g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n dolar cinsi varl\u0131klardan (dolarla fiyatlanan tahvil ve benzeri yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131) kademeli ama kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin maliye politikas\u0131na (harcama, vergi, bor\u00e7lanma) dair endi\u015feler de para birimini bask\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD Kongre B\u00fct\u00e7e Ofisi\u2019nin (CBO) 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek raporu, borcun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n (ekonominin toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne g\u00f6re bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc) y\u0131l sonuna kadar %115\u2019i a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Buna, Fed\u2019in 2022\u2019ye g\u00f6re enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha az \u201csert\u201d (daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi de eklenince g\u00fcven zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. HSBC, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken bile Fed\u2019in resesyonu (ekonomide daralma) tetiklemekten ka\u00e7\u0131nabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu, euro veya \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi zor) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu satman\u0131n cazip olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, dolar\u0131n yatay kalmas\u0131 veya d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece opsiyon primi (opsiyonu satan\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bedel) elde edilirken dolar\u0131n sert y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fi beklentisiyle pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinde de, zay\u0131f dolardan fayda sa\u011flayan \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) kurmak i\u00e7in opsiyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Meksika pesosu ve Brezilya reali g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken, dolara kar\u015f\u0131 bu paritelerde \u201ccall spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p satma; risk ve getirisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yap\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 de\u011fer kazanc\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Bu strateji, 2026 boyunca kal\u0131c\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131yla uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman d\u00f6nemi bitiyor mu? HSBC AM, nisan \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131f dolar\u201d trendini teyit etti\u011fini, stres anlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fini ve 2026 i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6nerdi\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45011\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}