Sterlin, piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini yaln\u0131zca bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp, y\u00fczde 0,25) art\u0131\u015fa indirmesine ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. ING ise faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fim beklemiyor. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re 25 bp\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f beklentisi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fene kadar piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda kalabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere siyaseti de g\u00fcndemde. Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019in, eski Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ABD B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi Peter Mandelson\u2019\u0131n onay s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin parlamentoda a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. S\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6rev alan \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir kamu g\u00f6revlisinin yar\u0131n parlamentodaki oturuma kat\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ING, GBP\/USD\u2019nin bu hafta son d\u00f6nemdeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor. Banka, ilk a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedef olarak 1,3380\/1,3400 band\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, piyasa BoE\u2019nin beklenen faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karsa bile Sterlin\u2019in g\u00f6rece iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. O d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi ve bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; politika faizi (Bank Rate, BoE\u2019nin temel faiz oran\u0131) y\u0131l boyunca %5,25 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Ancak siyasi g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc GBP\/USD\u2019nin kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri vermesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131; parite 2025\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 1,3400 hedefimize do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn 20 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo farkl\u0131. G\u00fcndem, faizleri sabit tutmaktan faiz indirimine kayd\u0131. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS, resmi istatistik kurumu) son verilerine g\u00f6re, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) enflasyonu %2,1\u2019e geriledi ve bu seviye Banka\u2019n\u0131n hedefinin hemen yak\u0131n\u0131. Bu nedenle faiz piyasalar\u0131 art\u0131k y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirim fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da sterlin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Sterlin\u2019in dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 1,2650 ve 1,2700 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike, opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) GBP\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put, kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 etkili koruma sa\u011flayabilir. BoE\u2019nin May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) artabilir; bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Siyasi belirsizli\u011fin de yeniden etkili oldu\u011funu not ediyoruz. May\u0131s\u2019taki yerel se\u00e7imler, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mali duru\u015fu (fiscal stability, b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi ve bor\u00e7lanma s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi) konusunda tedirginlik yarat\u0131yor ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. Bu durum, daha zay\u0131f Sterlin tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi) t\u00fcrev stratejilerini daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin, BoE\u2019de indirim beklentileri ve siyasi belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; ancak ING, GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3380-1,3400\u2019a geri \u00e7ekilme riski g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. T\u00dcFE %2,1; iki indirim fiyatlan\u0131yor, put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45010","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45010"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45010\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}