Hindistan Rupisi, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi; USD\/INR 93,00 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Hareket, yeniden alevlenen ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi ve dolar\u0131 desteklemesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 88,00 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Petrol, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n (petrol ve do\u011falgaz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir deniz rotas\u0131. Kapanma, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 ve bir ticari gemiyi etkileyen ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bo\u011faz\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmu\u015ftu. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, Hindistan gibi petrol ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimlerini genellikle bask\u0131lar; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc enerji ithalat faturas\u0131 artar.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 da g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 98,35 civar\u0131nda seyretti. \u0130ran, \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 talepler\u201d ve devam eden deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek kal\u0131c\u0131 ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine yeniden ba\u015flamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII: yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlar), Hindistan hisselerinde \u00fc\u00e7 seanst\u0131r net al\u0131c\u0131 oldu ve toplam 1.731,71 crore rupi ekledi. Piyasa beklentilerinde yer alan iki haftal\u0131k ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi 22 Nisan\u2019da sona erecek.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de mart ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Ayl\u0131k bazda %1,4 art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor (ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim: bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f\/azal\u0131\u015f); \u015fubat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %0,6 idi. USD\/INR 93,25 civar\u0131nda ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: daha g\u00fcncel fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 93,05 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu seviye) 92,28 ve 91,40; yukar\u0131da 94,00\u2019e do\u011fru hareket ihtimali bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden kapanmas\u0131yla petrol\u00fcn %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, rupide zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Hindistan petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %85\u2019ten fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor; bu nedenle varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 88 dolar civar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131, para birimi \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. \u0130lk etapta USD\/INR\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerin test edilmesi beklenir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri kur, faiz, emtia gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar), USD\/INR\u2019de uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) kurmay\u0131; bunu vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle (futures: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) veya al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n alarak de\u011ferlendirebilir. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (grafik ve g\u00f6stergelere dayal\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme), \u00f6zellikle parite 93,05 hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a 94,00\u2019e do\u011fru alan oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 2022\u2019deki enerji \u015fokunda da benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f ve rupi h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
22 Nisan\u2019da sona erecek ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes, izlenmesi gereken en kritik tarih. Uzat\u0131lmamas\u0131 gerilimi art\u0131rabilir. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr hisse al\u0131yor olsa da bu hava k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve h\u0131zla tersine d\u00f6nebilir. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 giri\u015flerin, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik krizin yarataca\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 dengelemesi zor.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131nki ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi de \u00f6nemli. %1,4 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f, dolar\u0131 daha da destekleyebilir ve USD\/INR\u2019nin y\u00fckselmesine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fini ve ekonomideki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 peki\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, riskin ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 opsiyon stratejileri daha uygun olabilir. USD\/INR al\u0131m opsiyonu, kur y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, gerilim beklenmedik \u015fekilde azal\u0131rsa kayb\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon primi: bu hakk\u0131 sat\u0131n alma bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ivmede zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor; bu da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli i\u015flemleri, do\u011frudan vadeli pozisyonlara g\u00f6re daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn kapanmas\u0131 WTI\u2019\u0131 88 dolara itti, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; rupi zay\u0131flad\u0131. USD\/INR 93 \u00fcst\u00fcnde, 94 hedefte. 22 Nisan ate\u015fkes ve ABD sat\u0131\u015f verisi kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45008","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45008"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45008\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45008"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45008"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45008"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}