Commerzbank\u2019tan Tatha Ghose, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan Polonya, \u00c7ekya ve Macaristan i\u00e7in Mart enflasyon verilerini de\u011ferlendirdi. Ghose, k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetlerindeki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 takiben man\u015fet enflasyonun Mart\u2019ta beklendi\u011fi gibi artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Ghose, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yeni olmas\u0131 nedeniyle Mart\u2019ta daha geni\u015f fiyatlara (di\u011fer mal ve hizmetlere) yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Vadeli al\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (ileride teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 sabitlenen anla\u015fmalar) sona erdik\u00e7e ithalat maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n zamanla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini not etti.<\/p>\n
Eurostat\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 HICP (Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verileri, \u00e7ekirdek HICP\u2019nin (enerji ve i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) Mart\u2019ta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve ayl\u0131k verilerde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilen normal istatistiksel dalgalanma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgesel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 mevcut seviyelerin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fene kadar ilave faiz indirimlerine ara vermesi bekleniyor. Bu ara, \u201cikinci tur etkiler\u201din (ilk fiyat \u015fokunun \u00fccretler ve di\u011fer fiyatlar \u00fczerinden kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi) olu\u015fup olu\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in zaman kazanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor; mevcut veriler ise ikincil bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, faiz piyasalar\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat do\u011furabilir; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar b\u00f6lgede merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n gere\u011finden \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filiminde) bir tepki verece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor olabilir. Polonya istatistik ofisinin verilerine g\u00f6re, Mart 2026\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ayl\u0131k bazda (month-on-month; bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 %0,3 artt\u0131. Bu oran, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la benzer \u015fekilde, hen\u00fcz yayg\u0131n bir ikinci tur bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret etmiyor. Buna ra\u011fmen, ileri tarihli faiz anla\u015fmalar\u0131 (forward rate agreements; gelecekte uygulanacak faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda zloty i\u00e7in neredeyse t\u00fcm faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaktan \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha az \u015fahin bir sonuca g\u00f6re pozisyon almak de\u011ferli olabilir. T\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u201creceiver\u201d faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131 (sabit faiz alan\/de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6deyen swap; faiz beklentileri d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Benzer \u015fekilde, EUR\/PLN gibi d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyattan uzak; kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kurun belirgin hareket etmesi gereken) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak, \u015fahin beklentilerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ana risk, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2025\u2019e g\u00f6re daha s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131. \u00c7ekya\u2019da 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fine ait \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi. Bu, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 bu kez olas\u0131 ikinci tur etkiler konusunda daha temkinli hale getirebilir. Ancak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon rakamlar\u0131nda net kan\u0131t g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar, 2025\u2019teki yakla\u015f\u0131m referans olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Enerji \u015foku man\u015feti yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti, ancak \u00e7ekirdekte ikinci tur sinyali zay\u0131f: Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re PCE\/PL merkez bankalar\u0131 ek indirimlere ara verebilir. Piyasa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fahin; receiver swap ve OTM EUR\/PLN call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45004\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}