Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri (borsa a\u00e7\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce endeksin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren kontratlar) Pazartesi Avrupa saatlerinde, ABD piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce %0,62 d\u00fc\u015ferek 49.350 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,49 gerileyerek 7.120 civar\u0131na, Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri ise %0,47 d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 26.700\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n
ABD hisse senedi vadeli i\u015flemleri, ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in geriledi. \u0130ran devlet haber ajans\u0131 IRNA, Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u201cger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan beklenteler\u201d ve di\u011fer kayg\u0131lar\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek ABD\u2019li yetkililerle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere yeniden ba\u015flamay\u0131 reddetti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131na petrol ta\u015f\u0131nan kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) tekrar kapatt\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n liman ablukalar\u0131n\u0131 (limanlara eri\u015fimi k\u0131s\u0131tlayan \u00f6nlemler) kald\u0131rmay\u0131 reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Trump, Truth Social\u2019da ABD temsilcilerinin Pazartesi \u0130slamabad\u2019a \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakere i\u00e7in gidece\u011fini yazd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden kapatma karar\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi ve elektrik santralleri ile k\u00f6pr\u00fcler dahil \u0130ran altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef alma tehditlerini yineledi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi nedeniyle enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrederken enflasyonun (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) kal\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en hafta Dow Jones %3,19 y\u00fckselirken S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 s\u0131ras\u0131yla %4,54 ve %6,84 artt\u0131; iki endeks de yeni rekor seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda ba\u015fa ba\u015f seviyesinin (ek istihdam bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratmadan dengede g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviye) muhtemelen s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. San Francisco Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mary Daly ise y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n mal ve hizmet enflasyonuna (\u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerdeki genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) yay\u0131l\u0131p yay\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flemler sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ederken, ge\u00e7en haftaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan uzun (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle ta\u015f\u0131nan) hisse pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in riskten korunma (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik i\u015flem) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100\u2019de put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde olas\u0131 gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Piyasada dalgalanman\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) artmas\u0131na uygun klasik bir tablo olu\u015fuyor. Jeopolitik \u015foklar, ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, VIX\u2019in (piyasa korku endeksi; oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) sakin seviyelerden h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abiliyor. VIX call opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi) ya da oynakl\u0131k ETF\u2019leri (endeks gibi i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden kapanmas\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini do\u011frudan riske atarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (ileride teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in fiyat\u0131 bug\u00fcnden sabitleyen kontratlar) y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir; 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131n birka\u00e7 ayda %30\u2019dan fazla s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na benzer bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerindeki call opsiyonlar\u0131 bu ortamda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin enflasyonu besleme riski, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu tablo 2022 ve 2023\u2019teki gibi, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini (politika pivotu; s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015ftan gev\u015femeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) geciktirdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle teknoloji gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler, y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131nda daha belirgin bask\u0131 (headwind; olumsuz etki) g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki s\u00f6ylem sertle\u015fmesi, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n savunma sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Bu gerilimli ortamda b\u00fcy\u00fck savunma \u015firketlerinin hisseleri, genel piyasaya k\u0131yasla daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilir. Savunma odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019ler ya da belirli savunma hisseleri \u00fczerinde call opsiyonlar\u0131, bu temaya hedefli maruz kalma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleyip ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak isteyenler i\u00e7in, SPX gibi endekslerde ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan iki put opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji; risk ve getiriyi s\u0131n\u0131rlar) daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131rken riski en ba\u015ftan netle\u015ftirir; ge\u00e7en hafta rekor tazeleyen bir piyasaya \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kritik geli\u015fme: ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden kapanmas\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikledi. Dow vadeli %0,62, S&P %0,49, Nasdaq %0,47 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; petrol-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 Fed indirimi beklentisini t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45003\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}