USD\/CHF pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7820 seviyesine hafif y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,7800\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutundu. Hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini izledi. Bunun arkas\u0131nda, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda \u201cba\u015faba\u015f\u201d seviyenin (ek istihdam yaratmadan ekonominin dengede kalabildi\u011fi seviye) muhtemelen s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da uzun s\u00fcrecek bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n hem enflasyon hem de istihdam (i\u015f) i\u00e7in riskleri art\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
San Francisco Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mary Daly, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n mal ve hizmet enflasyonuna (\u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerde genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) yay\u0131l\u0131p yay\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD Dolar\u0131 ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) destek buldu; bunun nedeni ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden y\u00fckselmesiydi.<\/p>\n
Guardian, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Bageyi\u2019nin ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131 ve k\u0131y\u0131 \u015feridine uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 sald\u0131rganl\u0131k ve ate\u015fkes ihlali olarak niteledi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Bageyi sosyal medyada, \u0130ran halk\u0131na y\u00f6nelik toplu cezaland\u0131rman\u0131n sava\u015f su\u00e7u ve insanl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 su\u00e7 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 da g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndan destek bulabilir. \u00d6te yandan enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika beklentilerini etkileyebilir. SNB\u2019nin mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda artan belirsizlik vurgulanm\u0131\u015f ve SNB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz (FX) piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ederek CHF\u2019nin (\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131) h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi belirtilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi (ihracat eksi ithalat) verisi, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde ise ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine gitmesinin olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemesi nedeniyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Mart 2026 ABD enflasyon verisi %3,6 ile kal\u0131c\u0131 (kolay gerilemeyen) seyretti; bu da fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla m\u00fccadelenin bitmedi\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum, geleneksel g\u00fcvenli limanlar aras\u0131nda say\u0131lan franka kar\u015f\u0131 bile dolara \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015fu, di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131na g\u00f6re belirgin bir politika fark\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u00f6ncesinde faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 beklentisi, getiri (faiz\/kazan\u00e7) i\u00e7in dolar tutmay\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 da g\u00fcvenli liman talebi g\u00f6rse de SNB frang\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 bir \u201ctavan\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CHF 0,7600 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda SNB\u2019nin piyasada frank satarak (a\u00e7\u0131k piyasada d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla kur \u00fczerinde etkide bulunarak) kuru destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu m\u00fcdahale e\u011filimi, k\u00fcresel belirsizlik s\u00fcrse bile frang\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 daha az olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim, hem enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hem de g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc. Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Nisan 2026 ba\u015f\u0131 boyunca varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, enerji maliyetlerinin k\u00fcresel enflasyon verilerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131mas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu belirsizlik hem dolar\u0131 hem frang\u0131 desteklese de Fed\u2019in tepkisinin daha sert olabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011feri bir ba\u015fka varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artabilece\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/CHF opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) \u015fu an d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n (her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket bekleyerek ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla kurulan stratejiler) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in uygun olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Buradaki ama\u00e7, mevcut dar banttan (s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan) bir kopu\u015fu \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek.<\/p>\n
Ancak merkez bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle USD\/CHF\u2019de hafif yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130lk maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in call spread (bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) gibi \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. 0,7900 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, b\u00f6yle bir pozisyon i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadede odak, t\u00fcketici sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyal i\u00e7in gelecek ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisinde olacak. Ard\u0131ndan ay sonundaki ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) fiyat endeksi kritik. Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (beklentiyi a\u015fan) bir veri, dolar\u0131 muhtemelen daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF 0,7820\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve petrol, enflasyon riskini art\u0131r\u0131p faiz indirimi beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; SNB frang\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Veriler kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44997"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44997\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}