USD\/JPY, hafta i\u00e7inde risk alg\u0131s\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma iste\u011fi) de\u011fi\u015fince 159,86\u2019y\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli test ettikten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. Japon yetkililerin ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, piyasada BoJ\u2019un ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini azaltt\u0131. Bu da yeni zay\u0131f tutarak USD\/JPY\u2019nin hafta ortas\u0131nda 159\u2019un alt band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, 16 Nisan\u2019da G7 maliye bakanlar\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 158,27\u2019ye geriledi. Piyasalar, Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama ve Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkilerden Sorumlu Maliye Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Atsushi Mimura\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 konusunda Japonya\u2013ABD yak\u0131n e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcne (koordine hareket) dair s\u00f6zlerine odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yendeki y\u00fckseli\u015f (yenin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131) zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve USD\/JPY yeniden toparland\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ayn\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar BoJ\u2019un s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) ihtimaline dair beklentileri de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ard\u0131ndan parite tekrar 159\u2019un alt band\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Dikkat 17 Nisan\u2019da Ueda\u2019n\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; burada ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik net bir sinyal verilmedi. Yaz\u0131 haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken yen hafif zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
G10 i\u00e7inde (en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren 10 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimi grubu) bu hafta hem ABD dolar\u0131 hem de yen yeniden sat\u0131ld\u0131. EUR\/JPY rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, AUD\/JPY ise Mart zirvesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 114 band\u0131na ilerledi; burada Avustralya\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n zaten ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 etkiliydi.<\/p>\n
Yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeni, geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi. BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda\u2019n\u0131n temkinli duru\u015fu ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan 2026\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. BoJ politika faizini 0,25% seviyesine do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131rsa da, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi bir dizi indirimden sonra bile 4,0% seviyesinde. Aradaki 375 baz puanl\u0131k (1 baz puan = y\u00fczde 0,01) fark, \u201cyenle bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme\u201d i\u015flemlerini (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimiyle fonlan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli getiriden kazan\u00e7 arama) cazip tutmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (merkez bankas\u0131\/hazine piyasadan d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satarak kuru etkilemesi) kaynakl\u0131 ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine dikkat etmesini gerektiriyor. Bu risk 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde art\u0131yor. Yetkililerden \u201cpiyasalar\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir aciliyetle izliyoruz\u201d \u015feklinde, 2024 ve 2025\u2019te m\u00fcdahale \u00f6ncesinde de duyulan s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar tekrar geliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019de ucuz, \u201czararda\u201d sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put: mevcut kurun alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ama etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck riske (tail risk: nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket riski) kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: USD\/JPY 159,86\u2019y\u0131 test edip geri \u00e7ekildi. Ueda\u2019n\u0131n temkinli tonu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini azaltt\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i canl\u0131 tutarken 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnde m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44996","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44996"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44996\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}