Commerzbank\u2019tan Thu Lan Nguyen, piyasalar\u0131n son enflasyon \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u00e7ok sert bir tepki verece\u011fini \u015fimdiden **fazla fiyatl\u0131yor** olabilece\u011fini, bu nedenle EUR\/USD\u2019de (euro\/dolar paritesi) k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6viz (FX) piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n **ilk tepkisine** odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Nguyen, euronun ve \u0130ngiliz sterlininin 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha dengeli seyretti\u011fini; bunun ECB ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) **faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle** ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Bankan\u0131n daha \u00f6nce de ECB\u2019ye ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentilerini sorgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da yak\u0131n vadede EUR\/USD\u2019de ek y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n
Daha uzun vadede ise kur performans\u0131n\u0131n, hangi ekonomilerin enflasyonu %2 hedefin\u0259 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cfiyat istikrar\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 standart hedef) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yakla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. ABD dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risklere dikkat \u00e7ekerek, **ithalat tarifelerindeki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n** (ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlere uygulanan ek vergiler) enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fini ve ABD y\u00f6netiminin ataca\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir enflasyon \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede EUR\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa muhtemelen **fazla iyimser** davrand\u0131. ECB\u2019nin son enflasyon \u015fokuna \u00e7ok agresif (sert) kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fi beklentisi y\u00fcksek. Bu alg\u0131, euronun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015fini frenliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin mart ay\u0131 enflasyonu %3,1 gelerek daha h\u0131zl\u0131 **para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131** (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ancak ECB yetkililerinin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 temkinli kald\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerine vurgu yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve **veriye ba\u011fl\u0131** (kararlar\u0131n gelen makro verilere g\u00f6re g\u00fcncellenmesi) bir patika \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Bu da piyasan\u0131n **\u015fahin** (daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) konumlanmas\u0131n\u0131n erken olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD\u2019nin dar bir bantta kalmas\u0131 veya hafif gerilemesi senaryosunda, **t\u00fcrev** (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin **paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak** (mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131 bir seviyede \u201cal\u0131m hakk\u0131\u201d veren opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim geliri elde etmek) ya da **ay\u0131 al\u0131m spreadi (bear call spread)** kurmak (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu alarak riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ften faydalanabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, paritenin kritik **diren\u00e7** seviyelerini (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan fiyat b\u00f6lgesi) a\u015famamas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022\u2019deki ortamdan belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde piyasalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fine daha emindi. Bug\u00fcn ise piyasalar ECB ve BoE\u2019nin ge\u00e7mi\u015ften ders ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu inan\u00e7, son d\u00f6nemde euro ve sterlini destekleyen unsurlardan biri oldu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon sonras\u0131 piyasa ECB\u2019den a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fahin tepkiyi fiyatl\u0131yor: Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re bu iyimserlik EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fi k\u0131s\u0131tlayabilir. K\u0131sa vadede bant, uzun vadede ABD tarifeleri dolar\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44994","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44994"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44994\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44994"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44994"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44994"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}