GBP\/USD, haftaya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu (gap) ile ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri alsa da, pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3500 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmeye devam etti. ABD Dolar\u0131, yeniden y\u00fckselen ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) talebinden destek buldu.<\/p>\n
The Guardian\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Bekaei, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131 ve k\u0131y\u0131 \u015feridine y\u00f6nelik bir ablukas\u0131n\u0131n (limanlara giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiilen engelleme) ate\u015fkes ihlali anlam\u0131na gelen bir sald\u0131rganl\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bekaei, bunun toplu cezaland\u0131rma oldu\u011funu, sava\u015f su\u00e7u ve insanl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 su\u00e7 kapsam\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Parite, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ayl\u0131k zirve 1,3600 seviyesinden daha da uzakla\u015ft\u0131. Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir haftal\u0131k dip seviyeden birka\u00e7 pip (kurun en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) toparlansa da, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,15\u2019ten fazla ekside kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki gerilim nedeniyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma e\u011filimi) zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u0130ran, hafta sonunda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli a\u00e7t\u0131ktan sonra su yolunu kapatt\u0131; buna ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 e\u015flik etti.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin s\u00fcrmesine dair beklentileri azaltt\u0131. Mevcut ate\u015fkesin 22 Nisan\u2019da sona ermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan 22 Nisan ate\u015fkes tarihi, piyasada oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zla ve sert de\u011fi\u015fmesi) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici. Benzer bir gerilimde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, beklenen piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en VIX endeksi birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 ve paritede sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunman\u0131n (hedge) do\u011frudan bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 kritik; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol, yani k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si buradan ge\u00e7iyor. Uzun s\u00fcreli bir t\u0131kanma, Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu da enflasyon \u015foku yaratarak \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Bu durum normalde daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir merkez bankas\u0131 beklentisini destekleyebilir; ancak k\u0131sa vadede piyasadaki ana tema, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle GBP\/USD risk reversal e\u011fimini (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131; y\u00f6n beklentisini g\u00f6sterir) izlemek gerekiyor. Mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha pahal\u0131 hale geldi\u011fini, yani yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sterlindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu artan negatif alg\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cbear call spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kurulan, belirli bir seviyenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejisi) gibi i\u015flemlerle de\u011ferlendirilebilir; bu strateji, paritenin 1,3600 gibi bir seviyenin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde getiri sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flemlere ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin\/dolar gerilimle sars\u0131l\u0131yor: ABD\u2013\u0130ran krizi g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131 destekleyip GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3500\u2019e itiyor. 22 Nisan ate\u015fkesi volatiliteyi tetikleyebilir; put opsiyonlar\u0131 pahalan\u0131yor, 1,3600 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44991"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44991\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}