GBP\/USD, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bo\u015flukla (gap down: fiyat\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n belirgin alt\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti, ancak Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3500 civar\u0131nda yine de geride seyretti. Hareket, ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca tercih edilen) olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelmesiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
The Guardian\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Baghaei, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131 ve k\u0131y\u0131 \u015feridine uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 ate\u015fkesi ihlal eden bir \u201csald\u0131rganl\u0131k\u201d olarak niteledi. Baghaei, sosyal medyada bunun \u201ctoplu cezaland\u0131rma\u201d oldu\u011funu ve \u201csava\u015f su\u00e7u ile insanl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 su\u00e7\u201d say\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015f, ancak ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmay\u0131 reddetmesi sonras\u0131 Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc bu ad\u0131mdan geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130ran ordusu, ABD\u2019nin ticari bir gemiye ate\u015f a\u00e7arak ate\u015fkesi bozdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve misilleme yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d (faizleri hemen indirmeden uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma) duru\u015funu fiyatlarken (piyasa beklentilerine yans\u0131tmak) Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekledi. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisinin Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %1,3 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor (ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim: bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re), \u015eubat\u2019ta art\u0131\u015f %0,6 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 geriliminin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesi ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde destek bulabilir. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Sarah Breeden, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n piyasalarda birden fazla stresin ayn\u0131 anda olu\u015fma riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ge\u00e7mi\u015f krizlerden \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n (piyasay\u0131 hassas yapan zay\u0131f noktalar) h\u00e2l\u00e2 var oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Sterlin taraf\u0131nda BoE, 2025\u2019tekine benzer bir s\u0131namayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Son d\u00f6nemde \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu %3,2\u2019ye gerilese de enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselme riski, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin tamamen ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n BoE\u2019den gelebilecek \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\/sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimli) s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerini (gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) izlemeleri gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki geli\u015fmeler, jeopoliti\u011fin enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l h\u0131zla alevlendirebilece\u011fini net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; bu ders bug\u00fcn de ge\u00e7erli. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 87 dolar civar\u0131ndayken ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki tansiyon y\u00fcksek seyrederken, petrol \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak bu riski do\u011frudan fiyatlayan bir strateji. Bu y\u00f6ntem, arz kesintileri (\u00fcretim\/ta\u015f\u0131ma aksamas\u0131) kaynakl\u0131 ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, anlat\u0131n\u0131n (piyasa hik\u00e2yesi\/alg\u0131s\u0131) ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fip d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerinde sert dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Merkez bankalar\u0131 konusundaki belirsizlik, GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik tansiyon t\u0131rmand\u0131, Dolar g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: GBP\/USD gap down sonras\u0131 toparlansa da 1,3500\u2019de zay\u0131f. Fed\u2019in \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, petrol ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44981\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}