Asya hisse senetleri Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi; ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 itti. Petrol\u00fcn pahalanmas\u0131 \u201cenflasyon\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyinde art\u0131\u015f) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cfaiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\u201dna (politika faizini y\u00fckseltmesine) devam etme ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da Nikkei 225 yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 art\u0131\u015fla 59.050 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hong Kong\u2019da Hang Seng Endeksi %0,60 y\u00fckselerek 26.300\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de SSE Composite %0,59 artarak 4.070\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de Kospi %1,30 y\u00fckselerek 6.270\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019\u0131n GIFT Nifty vadeli g\u00f6stergesi %0,14 art\u0131\u015fla 24.450 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, Nifty Endeksi i\u00e7in yatay-pozitif bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasadaki belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n (k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n) temkinli kalmas\u0131 bekleniyordu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima etti, ancak Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geri ad\u0131m att\u0131. Bunun, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmay\u0131 reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ordusu, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait ticari bir gemiye ate\u015f a\u00e7arak \u201cate\u015fkes\u201di (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 durdurma anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131) ihlal etti\u011fini ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Trump ise ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde, dur ihtar\u0131na uymad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerek\u00e7esiyle \u0130ran bayrakl\u0131 bir y\u00fck gemisine ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve gemiye el koydu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump, Truth Social\u2019da ABD yetkililerinin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in \u0130slamabad\u2019a gidece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. IRNA ise Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u201cger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan beklentiler\u201d gerek\u00e7esiyle m\u00fczakerelere yeniden ba\u015flamay\u0131 reddetti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cvolatilite\u201d (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131; fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren, piyasadaki korku\/gerginlik barometresi) bu sabah %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 22,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da artan piyasa tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde olas\u0131 yeni bir askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, farkl\u0131 varl\u0131k t\u00fcrlerinde \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite\u201dyi (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) daha da yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan i\u015flem, petrolde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak. Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI: ABD\u2019de referans kabul edilen ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) vadeli kontratlar\u0131 98 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. 2025 sonbahar\u0131nda benzer ama daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir aksama, iki haftadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda %15\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u201cal\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (belirli bir vadeye kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) ile fiyatlar\u0131n daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Asya borsalar\u0131ndaki iyimserli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olunmal\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enflasyon verilerine ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak yans\u0131r. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) dahil merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 beklenen faiz indirimlerini ertelemeye, hatta daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) bir tutum benimsemeye itebilir. S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde \u201csat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (belirli bir vadeye kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 makul bir korunma y\u00f6ntemidir.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k genellikle \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201da ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikler; bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler. Dolar endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) zaten g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sinyalleri veriyor ve son zirveleri yeniden test edebilir. Bu tablo, hem g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar hem de artan enerji ithalat maliyetleri nedeniyle genelde bask\u0131 g\u00f6ren geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinde temkinli duru\u015fa i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de tansiyon yeniden y\u00fckseldi: Asya borsalar\u0131 ralli yaparken petrol 98 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Enflasyon ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 korkusu b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; VIX %30 z\u0131plad\u0131, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44969\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}