WTI (ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi), Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 86,70 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fiyatlar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda artan gerilimle y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re \u0130ran ordusu, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait bir ticari gemiye ate\u015f ederek ate\u015fkesi ihlal etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ran, ABD ordusunun \u201cdenizde ve silahl\u0131 gasp\u201d olarak niteledi\u011fi eylemlerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran, ABD ile yeni bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakerecilerin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ikinci turu i\u00e7in Pakistan\u2019a gidece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinden saatler sonra geldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (API) stok raporu var. API, ABD\u2019deki petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en sekt\u00f6r raporudur. Stoklarda beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek fiyatlar\u0131 destekleyebilir; beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f ise talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na veya arz\u0131n fazla oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edip fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n
WTI, \u201cWest Texas Intermediate\u201d\u0131n k\u0131saltmas\u0131d\u0131r. Brent ve Dubai ile birlikte \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcnden biridir. ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilen \u201chafif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc\u201d (kolay i\u015flenen ve daha temiz) bir petrold\u00fcr ve Cushing (Oklahoma) teslim noktas\u0131 \u00fczerinden fiyatlan\u0131p da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak arz-talep dengesi, OPEC kararlar\u0131, siyasi gerilimler ve ABD Dolar\u0131 etkiler. OPEC, petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerin \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcd\u00fcr. API raporu Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnleri, ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verisi ise bir g\u00fcn sonra a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r. EIA, ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumudur; iki rapor \u00e7o\u011fu zaman benzer sonu\u00e7 verir.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate petrol\u00fc 86,70 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD donanmas\u0131na ait gemi ile \u0130ran\u2019a ait ticari gemi aras\u0131ndaki olay, piyasada tedirginlik yaratt\u0131. Bu durum, \u201cjeopolitik risk primi\u201dni (arz kesintisi endi\u015fesiyle fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) art\u0131rarak k\u0131sa vadede fiyat\u0131 90 dolara ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Benzer gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert dalgalanmalar, piyasada fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor \u015fekilde hareket edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n petrol varil fiyat\u0131na k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede 10 dolar veya daha fazla ekleyebildi\u011fi \u00f6rnekler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanman\u0131n fiyatlara h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yans\u0131ma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da talebin sa\u011flam oldu\u011funa i\u015faretler var. \u00c7in\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan Caixin \u0130malat PMI 51,2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. PMI, sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksidir; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndaki bu tablo, jeopolitik risk olmasa bile petrol fiyatlar\u0131na destek sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc izleniyor. Mart 2026 enflasyon verisinin beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelmesiyle Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 106,50 ile alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, petrol\u00fc dolar cinsinden alan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in maliyeti art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda OPEC+ \u00fcretim kesintilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ABD \u00fcretimi artmaya devam ediyor. EIA\u2019n\u0131n son raporuna g\u00f6re ABD \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,4 milyon varil ile rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc arz, k\u00fcresel gerilime ra\u011fmen fiyatlar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131ran ana nedenlerden biri.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak API raporu var. Piyasa beklentisi ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,1 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; bu, fiyatlar i\u00e7in olumlu (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc) bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Ayr\u0131ca benzin stoklar\u0131 da izlenecek; beklenmedik bir stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131, yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonu \u00f6ncesinde t\u00fcketici talebinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu karma\u015f\u0131k sinyaller nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite\u201dnin (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in \u201cstraddle\u201d ve \u201cstrangle\u201d gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler; strangle ise farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla benzer ama\u00e7 ta\u015f\u0131r. Y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in \u201cbull call spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) 90 dolara do\u011fru kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanman\u0131n kontroll\u00fc bir yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi WTI\u2019y\u0131 86,70 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; jeopolitik risk primi 90 dolar ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. G\u00f6zler API stoklar\u0131nda, \u00c7in talebinde; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve rekor ABD arz\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44965\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}