NZD\/USD, Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ve 0,5880 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 0,5900 seviyesine do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerinin Mart ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda 698 milyon NZD fazla (ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131) verdi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. \u015eubat\u2019ta 365 milyon NZD a\u00e7\u0131k (ithalat\u0131n ihracat\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131) vard\u0131. <\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Mart\u2019ta 3,2 milyar NZD oldu; bir \u00f6nceki ay 3,1 milyar NZD idi. \u0130hracat y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) %7,3 artarak rekor 7,94 milyar NZD\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karken, ithalat %9,6 art\u0131\u015fla 7,25 milyar NZD oldu. <\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc kredi referans faizlerini (LPR: bankalar\u0131n firmalara ve hanelere kredi verirken baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterge faiz) de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR %3,00\u2019te, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR %3,50\u2019de kald\u0131. <\/p>\n
Parite, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) destek bulmas\u0131 nedeniyle de bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu talep, ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden y\u00fckselmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. IRNA, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD yetkilileriyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yeniden ba\u015flatmay\u0131 \u201cger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan beklentiler\u201d gerek\u00e7esiyle reddetti\u011fini bildirdi. <\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in 28 \u015eubat\u2019taki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndan bu yana \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapal\u0131 tutuyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir a\u00e7\u0131lma i\u015fareti verilse de, Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulanan ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmay\u0131 reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan bu sinyal geri \u00e7ekildi. <\/p>\n
Trump, Truth Social\u2019da ABD temsilcilerinin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakere i\u00e7in \u0130slamabad\u2019a gidece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca elektrik santralleri ve k\u00f6pr\u00fcler dahil \u0130ran altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar konusunda uyar\u0131da bulundu. <\/p>\n
Olumlu Yeni Zelanda d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik risklerin g\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131yor. Rekor ihracat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u00e7 sinyal olsa da, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f) h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f havas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede NZD\/USD i\u00e7in ana belirleyici olmaya devam edebilir. <\/p>\n
Ekonomik ve siyasi haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fki, kurda daha sert dalgalanma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelecekteki dalga boyu; implied volatility) y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir; \u00f6zellikle k\u00fcresel ticarete ve risk alg\u0131s\u0131na hassas paritelerde. Bu ortamda, yaln\u0131zca y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri daha temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. <\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilden fazla petrol bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6nemlerinde benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve belirsizlik ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Kapanman\u0131n uzamas\u0131, benzer bir bask\u0131y\u0131 tekrarlayarak \u201cKiwi\u201d (Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131) \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. <\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in kredi referans faizlerini sabit tutmas\u0131 bir miktar istikrar sa\u011flasa da ekonomiye yeni bir destek (te\u015fvik) eklemiyor. Yeni Zelanda ekonomisi, \u00c7in talebine yak\u0131ndan ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek bir yava\u015flama Kiwi\u2019yi k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getirebilir. PBoC\u2019den yeni destek gelmemesi, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n rekor ihracat\u0131n\u0131n dayana\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha az sa\u011flam g\u00f6sterebilir. <\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel \u00e7alkant\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n zirvelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor; \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 mevcut tablo da benzer bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi besleyebilir. Trump\u2019\u0131n sert s\u00f6ylemi ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ilerleme sa\u011flanamamas\u0131, USD\u2019de g\u00fcc\u00fcn korunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede odak, NZD\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma veya bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma stratejilerine kay\u0131yor. Paritede put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon; zarar riski pe\u015fin \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r) al\u0131m\u0131, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelden yararlanma amac\u0131yla takip ediliyor. Ayr\u0131ca long straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p, fiyat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket ederse iki y\u00f6nden birinde kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) da belirsizlik y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NZD\/USD, rekor ihracatla 0,5900\u2019a toparlan\u0131yor; ancak ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman USD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. PBoC faizleri sabit. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz endi\u015fesi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44963\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}