Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBOC), USD\/CNY **merkez paritesini** (bankan\u0131n her g\u00fcn ilan etti\u011fi, yuan\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda referans kuru) **6,8648** olarak belirledi. Bu seviye, ge\u00e7en cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc **6,8622**\u2019lik fiksin (g\u00fcnl\u00fck resmi kur belirleme i\u015flemi) ve Reuters\u2019\u0131n **6,8291** tahmininin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
PBOC\u2019nin temel para politikas\u0131 hedefleri; kur istikrar\u0131 dahil fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemektir. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in\u2019in finansal piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7ma ve geli\u015ftirme gibi finansal reformlar \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
PBOC, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti devletine aittir; bu nedenle ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z (\u00f6zerk) bir kurum de\u011fildir. Devlet Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan aday g\u00f6sterilen \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi Komite Sekreteri, y\u00f6netim ve y\u00f6n \u00fczerinde belirleyici etkiye sahiptir. Pan Gongsheng hem bu g\u00f6revi hem de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k (guvern\u00f6r) g\u00f6revini y\u00fcr\u00fctmektedir.<\/p>\n
PBOC; **7 g\u00fcn vadeli ters repo faizi** (bankan\u0131n piyasadan k\u0131sa vadeli fon \u00e7ekip vermek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131, piyasaya y\u00f6n veren k\u0131sa vadeli faiz), **Orta Vadeli Kredi Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \/ MLF** (bankalara daha uzun vadeli fonlama sa\u011flama arac\u0131), **d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi** (piyasadan d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satarak kuru etkileme) ve **zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131 \/ RRR** (bankalar\u0131n toplad\u0131klar\u0131 mevduat\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131nda tutma zorunlulu\u011fu) gibi ara\u00e7lar kullan\u0131r. **Kredi Ana Faizi \/ LPR** (bankalar\u0131n kredi fiyatlamas\u0131nda referans ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterge faiz) \u00c7in\u2019in g\u00f6sterge faizidir; kredi, konut kredisi ve mevduat faizlerini etkilerken yuan\u0131n kurunu da etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in \u00f6zel bankalara izin verir ve toplam 19 \u00f6zel banka vard\u0131r. En b\u00fcy\u00fckler aras\u0131nda Tencent destekli WeBank ve Ant Group destekli MYbank bulunur. \u00d6zel sermaye ile finanse edilen kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte giri\u015fine 2014\u2019te izin verilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yuan\u0131 piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha zay\u0131f bir seviyeden belirlemesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ad\u0131m, artan ekonomik bask\u0131lar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kurun seviyesini y\u00f6netmeye y\u00f6nelik bilin\u00e7li bir hamle olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Tahminlerden sapma, bu y\u0131l ocak ay\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en b\u00fcy\u00fck fark.<\/p>\n
Bu hamle, son ekonomik verilerle ilgili endi\u015feleri yans\u0131t\u0131yor olabilir. \u00c7in\u2019in 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %4,8 ile h\u00fck\u00fcmetin hedefledi\u011fi tempoyu az farkla ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Mart ihracat\u0131n\u0131n da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 gerilemesi, daha zay\u0131f bir para birimini yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00c7in mallar\u0131n\u0131 daha rekabet\u00e7i k\u0131lmak i\u00e7in bir ara\u00e7 haline getiriyor. Bu d\u00f6nemde PBOC\u2019nin kurun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131ndansa ihracat\u0131 desteklemeyi \u00f6ne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
PBOC\u2019nin birden fazla arac\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ek parasal gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi veya likidite art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar) ihtimali g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Ge\u00e7en hafta MLF faizini %2,5\u2019te sabit tutmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, mesajlar daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faizlerin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden) bir tona kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu da gerekirse bankalara likidite (piyasadaki nakit\/para bollu\u011fu) sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131nda indirim yap\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Beklenenden zay\u0131f gelen bir dizi fiksin ard\u0131ndan LPR\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz **15 baz puan** (0,15 y\u00fczde puan) indirim yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yuan lehine \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) almada temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00c7in ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 varl\u0131klarda kur riskini **hedge etmek** (kur dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7larla korunmak) daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Uzun s\u00fcre zay\u0131f kalan bir yuan, \u00c7in i\u00e7in ithalat maliyetini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in emtia fiyatlar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle sanayi metallerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 USD\/CNH paritesinde (yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) artan oynakl\u0131ktan (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. Kurun ikinci \u00e7eyrek bitmeden **6,90** seviyesini test etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
PBOC, USD\/CNY merkez paritesini 6,8648\u2019e \u00e7ekerek beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; ocaktan beri en b\u00fcy\u00fck sapma. Zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/ihracat bask\u0131s\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d gev\u015femeyi g\u00fcndemde tutuyor; yuan 6,90\u2019\u0131 test edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44962\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}