GBP\/USD haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) bir fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu (gap: \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f ile yeni a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f aras\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeyen aral\u0131k) ile ba\u015flad\u0131 ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3600 yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen iki ayl\u0131k zirveden uzakla\u015ft\u0131. Parite daha sonra Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde kaydedilen bir haftal\u0131k dipten birka\u00e7 pip (pip: d\u00f6viz paritelerinde en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) toparland\u0131 ve 1,3500 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,15\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (risk sentiment: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu durum g\u00fcvenli liman (safe-haven: belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklerken parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. \u0130ran, hafta sonu k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan su yolunu kapatt\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (naval blockade: denizden giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n askeri g\u00fc\u00e7le engellenmesi) takiben geldi; mevcut ate\u015fkesin 21 Nisan\u2019da sona ermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n IRNA haber ajans\u0131, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile yap\u0131lacak ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019un \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmemesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019daki t\u00fcm enerji santrallerini ve t\u00fcm k\u00f6pr\u00fcleri hedef alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; bu a\u00e7\u0131klama t\u0131rmanma riskini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015f enflasyon endi\u015felerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ve ABD tahvil getirilerini (bond yields: tahvillerin faiz kazanc\u0131 oran\u0131) yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu da dolar\u0131 destekledi. Dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalinin azalmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131rken; piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 sterlini destekledi.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr geli\u015fmelere tepki olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivmesinden (momentum: fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131\/y\u00f6n\u00fc) ve artan endi\u015feden yararlanmak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Ayr\u0131ca Nisan 2025\u2019te o hafta paritede z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) %25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da al\u0131m (call) spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) gibi riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 (risk-defined: azami zarar ba\u015ftan belli) yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Bu, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131) d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani hareketlerden yararlanmaya y\u00f6nelik bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla tetiklenen ham petroldeki s\u0131\u00e7rama, do\u011frudan bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) veya enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, gerilimi do\u011frudan fiyatlamak i\u00e7in en net y\u00f6ntem olurdu. Tarihsel veriler, Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin o hafta sonu haberlerinin ard\u0131ndan 48 saat i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Fed ile BoE aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (divergence: iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde\/\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hareket etmesi) daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir e\u011filimdi. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc yaratsa da, BoE faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi ile Fed\u2019in daha n\u00f6tr (neutral: belirgin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali vermeyen) duru\u015fu, sterlin i\u00e7in bir taban (floor: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan seviye\/dinamik) olu\u015fturdu. Bu da GBP\/USD\u2019de korku kaynakl\u0131 sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n, daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD, 1,3600 zirvesinden gap\u2019li d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3500 alt\u0131na indi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn kapanmas\u0131 risk-off\u2019u b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc, petrol ve tahvil getirileri dolar\u0131 destekledi. BoE beklentisi sterlingi tutarken, put opsiyonlar\u0131 ve risk-defined stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44960"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44960\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}