USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 159,10 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n yedi haftay\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden y\u00fckselen ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimiyle Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakerecilerin Pazartesi ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in Pakistan\u2019a gidece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, ABD ile yeni bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran bayrakl\u0131 bir y\u00fck gemisine ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve gemiye el koydu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Tahran ise bo\u011faza yakla\u015fan gemilerin ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmi\u015f say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130ran su yolunun a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylese de, baz\u0131 gemiler saatler i\u00e7inde ge\u00e7i\u015fleri durdurdu.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, Yen\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla derinle\u015fmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, ge\u00e7en hafta ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ile d\u00f6viz konular\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve gerekirse \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201d ad\u0131mlara haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. (D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale, devletin kurdaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131d\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni; Japonya ekonomisinin gidi\u015fat\u0131ndan, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) politikas\u0131ndan, Japonya ve ABD tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki farktan ve genel piyasa risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan etkilenir. BOJ 2013\u20132024 aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 uygulad\u0131 (faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutup piyasaya bol para verme), 2024\u2019te ise bu politikay\u0131 kademeli olarak geri \u00e7evirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD\u2013Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi fark\u0131 daralmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. (Tahvil getirisi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n tahvilden bekledi\u011fi faiz benzeri kazan\u00e7t\u0131r; iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki fark daral\u0131nca dolar\u0131n avantaj\u0131 azalabilir.)<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi USD\/JPY\u2019yi 159,10\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131rken, k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Mevcut jeopolitik ortam, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak dolara talebi art\u0131r\u0131yor. (G\u00fcvenli liman, kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha az riskli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klard\u0131r.) Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (\u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan piyasada beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131d\u0131r.) Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu straddle veya strangle gibi stratejilerle de\u011ferlendirebilir. (Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte almak; strangle ise farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak demektir. Ama\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmakt\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 160 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken \u00e7ok dikkatli olmak gerekir; buras\u0131 psikolojik bir e\u015fiktir. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda Japon yetkililer piyasaya do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015f, parite saatler i\u00e7inde birka\u00e7 yen d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ad\u0131m\u201d ihtimali \u00f6nemli bir risk yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle uzun (y\u00fckseli\u015f) pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir koruma arac\u0131 olabilir. (Put opsiyonu, belirli fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 verir; koruyucu put, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
Orta vadede temel g\u00f6stergeler Yen\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. BOJ\u2019un 2024\u2019te ba\u015flayan normalle\u015fme s\u00fcreci devam ederken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili getirisi %1,3 seviyesinde ve bu, 10 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyi. Bu durum ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015f\u00e7a azalt\u0131yor; bu da zamanla USD\/JPY\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Yen normalde g\u00fcvenli liman say\u0131l\u0131r; ancak ABD ordusunun do\u011frudan devreye girmesi \u015fimdilik dolara ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Benzer bir tablo 2022\u2019de jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu y\u00fczden USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in acele etmemek, dolardaki \u201cjeopolitik prim\u201din (gerilim nedeniyle dolar\u0131n ekstra de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131) zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek daha uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik tansiyon USD\/JPY\u2019yi 159,10\u2019da tutuyor: ABD\u2013\u0130ran krizi dolara g\u00fcvenli liman talebi getirirken 160 psikolojik e\u015fik. Japonya m\u00fcdahale sinyali risk, BOJ normalle\u015fmesi orta vadede yen lehine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44955"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44955\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}