AUD\/USD, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 0,7140\u2019a do\u011fru geriledi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla Avustralya Dolar\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Mart Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisine \u00e7evrildi. (Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar: T\u00fcketicilerin ma\u011faza ve \u00e7evrim i\u00e7i harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren, ekonomik aktiviteye dair \u00f6nemli veridir.)<\/p>\n
\u0130ran devlet televizyonu, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Truth Social\u2019daki payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile yeni bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini reddetti\u011fini pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc duyurdu. Payla\u015f\u0131mda, ABD temsilcilerinin pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak yeni bir m\u00fczakere turu i\u00e7in Pakistan\u2019a gitti\u011fi belirtildi. (M\u00fczakere: Taraflar\u0131n anla\u015fmaya varmak i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc resmi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme s\u00fcreci.)<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, 28 \u015eubat\u2019taki ABD ve \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndan bu yana H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapal\u0131 tutuyor. \u0130ran cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc su yolunu yeniden a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; ancak Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmay\u0131 reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan cumartesi karar\u0131n\u0131 geri \u00e7ekti. (Abluka: Bir \u00fclkenin liman ve ticaretine eri\u015fimi k\u0131s\u0131tlayarak ekonomik bask\u0131 uygulamas\u0131.)<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 ve s\u00fcren jeopolitik risk, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi art\u0131rd\u0131. (G\u00fcvenli liman: Belirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha az riskli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi; ABD Dolar\u0131 bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.) Bu durum k\u0131sa vadede parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek ise Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (RBA) y\u00f6nelik beklentilerden geliyor. Piyasalar, 5 May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez art\u0131r\u0131larak %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u201372 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. (Fiyatlamak: Piyasan\u0131n bir beklentiyi kur\/varl\u0131k fiyat\u0131na \u00f6nceden yans\u0131tmas\u0131.) Bu beklenti, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon (kolay gerilemeyen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 istihdam piyasas\u0131 (i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131) ile ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo farkl\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda imzalanan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi azaltma anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik bask\u0131lar hafifledi. (Gerilimi azaltma anla\u015fmas\u0131: Taraflar\u0131n tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131.) Son deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri, bo\u011faz i\u00e7in sigorta primlerinin 2025 zirvelerine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. (Sigorta primi: Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k riskine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6denen sigorta bedeli.) Bu, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek veren \u00f6nemli bir unsuru zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkiyi azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7 dinamikleri de belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fun (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) aksine RBA, 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonun %3,1\u2019e so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesi sonras\u0131 uzun bir bekleme d\u00f6nemine ge\u00e7ti. (T\u00dcFE: T\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyonun temel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc.) Bu oran, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %4,5 seviyelerinin belirgin alt\u0131nda. Bu nedenle y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri tamamen ortadan kalkt\u0131 ve bu da AUD\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. (Bekleme\/pas duru\u015fu: Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizi uzun s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi.)<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisi ise diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. Mart 2026\u2019da 215 bin ki\u015filik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (yeni i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) dolar\u0131n temel deste\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. Bu tablo, AUD\/USD\u2019nin bir bant i\u00e7inde (belirli destek\u2013diren\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritenin iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yapmayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle \u201cstrangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir. (Opsiyon: Belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme. Strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: Ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonunu satarak prim (ba\u015fta al\u0131nan gelir) toplama stratejisi; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket olmamas\u0131na oynan\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ka\u00e7t\u0131: AUD\/USD 0,7140\u2019a gev\u015fedi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken g\u00f6zler ABD Mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda. RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi AUD\u2019ye destek verse de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44947"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44947\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}