Alt\u0131n, \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131yla cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 4.850 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD ham petrol\u00fc (WTI) %9,50\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 81,74 dolara indi. ABD Dolar Endeksi ise %0,17 gerileyerek 98,01\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi, bo\u011faz\u0131n t\u00fcm ticari gemilere a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Donald Trump da bo\u011faz\u0131n tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131. \u00dcst d\u00fczey bir \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkili Reuters\u2019a, Tahran ile Washington aras\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 bulundu\u011funu ve bo\u011faz\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran-ABD ate\u015fkesinin \u015fartlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Petroldeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan piyasalar, LSEG Workspace verilerine g\u00f6re y\u0131l sonuna kadar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) toplam 14 baz puan faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. (Baz puan, faiz oranlar\u0131nda %0,01\u2019e denk gelen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc birimidir.) Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller, sava\u015f\u0131n enflasyonu art\u0131r\u0131p i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 halinde faizleri sabit tutmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. (\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik gibi verilerin genelini ifade eder.) San Francisco Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mary Daly ise \u201cdengeye yak\u0131n faiz\u201d seviyesini %3 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. (Dengeye yak\u0131n faiz, ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne de yava\u015flatan faiz d\u00fczeyidir.)<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 7 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,246\u2019ya indi ve mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n 4.767 dolardan tepki alsa da 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 (basit hareketli ortalama; son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) 4.899 dolarda a\u015famad\u0131. Diren\u00e7 4.900, ard\u0131ndan 4.950 ve 5.000 dolar seviyelerinde; destek ise 4.750, 4.699 ve 4.549 dolarda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinden (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) \u00e7ok Fed\u2019in faiz indirece\u011fi beklentisiyle y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in hassas bir noktada. 4.900 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc gerginle\u015ftiriyor. Jeopolitik tablo aniden de\u011fi\u015firse iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u201cuzun strangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 anda hem kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha yukar\u0131da olan al\u0131m opsiyonu hem daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131n alma stratejisi) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. (\u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \/ out-of-the-money\u201d, mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu veya mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu gibi, \u015fimdilik k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f opsiyon demektir.)<\/p>\n
Piyasa, tek bir g\u00fcn\u00fcn haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayanarak y\u0131l sonuna kadar 14 baz puanl\u0131k indirim beklentisini h\u0131zla \u00f6ne \u00e7ekmi\u015f durumda. 2024 ve 2025 boyunca, yeni enflasyon verileri veya k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelerle bu beklentilerin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu durum ABD dolar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131labilir; ancak tansiyonun yeniden y\u00fckselmesi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcven\u201d i\u00e7in dolara d\u00f6nmesine ve bu i\u015flemin tersine d\u00f6nmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlarken CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) muhtemelen daha cazip seviyelere indi. (VIX, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir.) 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda jeopolitik gerilimin ilk d\u00f6neminde VIX\u2019in 35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7 bozulursa piyasa korkusunun geri d\u00f6nmesine kar\u015f\u0131 VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli vadede belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak daha do\u011frudan ve g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti: alt\u0131n %1,5 y\u00fckselip 4.850$\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, WTI %9,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Dolar zay\u0131flarken Fed\u2019de 14bp indirim fiyatlan\u0131yor; tahviller geriledi, volatilite senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44931"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44931\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}