DBS Group Research, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (People\u2019s Bank of China – PBoC) 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k Kredi Ana Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Loan Prime Rate – LPR: bankalar\u0131n \u015firket ve hanehalk\u0131na kulland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 krediler i\u00e7in baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterge faiz) %3,00 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini ve fiyat ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeyi gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,5 iken 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde %5,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Ayr\u0131ca d\u0131\u015f talebin (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen sipari\u015fler) sanayi faaliyetini destekledi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Kurum, i\u00e7 talebin (yurt i\u00e7i harcamalar) dengesiz seyretti\u011fini; t\u00fcketim, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve kredi talebinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu ifade ediyor. Bunu, gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki bask\u0131ya ve \u201canti-involution\u201da ba\u011fl\u0131yor. (Anti-involution: \u015firketler aras\u0131nda verimsiz, y\u0131prat\u0131c\u0131 rekabeti azaltmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck d\u00fczenleyici yakla\u015f\u0131m.)<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimiyle \u201cgev\u015feme\u201dye (para politikas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyecek \u015fekilde kolayla\u015ft\u0131rma) daha az ihtiya\u00e7 var. Bununla birlikte artan enerji maliyetleri ve tedarik zinciri aksamalar\u0131n\u0131n (mal ve par\u00e7a ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bozulma) risk olu\u015fturmaya devam etti\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu nedenle politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n genel (geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131) faiz indirimleri yerine hedefli \u00f6nlemlere (belirli sekt\u00f6r ve alanlara y\u00f6nelik destek) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131 olarak, Endonezya ve Filipinler\u2019in de politika faizlerini (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli temel faiz oran\u0131) s\u0131ras\u0131yla %4,75 ve %4,25\u2019te sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Gerek\u00e7eler aras\u0131nda enflasyon e\u011filimi, sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanma (\u00fclkeye giren\/\u00e7\u0131kan para) ve d\u00f6viz kuru bask\u0131s\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR\u2019yi %3,00\u2019te tutmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00c7in faiz swaplar\u0131nda (faiz takas\u0131: taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi birbirine de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi beklenebilir. 2026 1. \u00e7eyrekte GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %5,0 olmas\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 indirimlerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Mart 2026 sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,1 artmas\u0131 da, d\u0131\u015f talebin \u015fimdilik i\u00e7 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 telafi etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat ile zay\u0131f yerel talep ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, hisse endekslerinde i\u015flem yaparken temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Mart ay\u0131nda yeni konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n %0,5 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve bunun \u00fcst \u00fcste onuncu ayl\u0131k gerileme olmas\u0131, i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimdeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ihracata d\u00f6n\u00fck sekt\u00f6rlerin daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi beklenebilir. Bu tablo, genel piyasada agresif ve tek y\u00f6ne y\u00f6nelik (fiyat\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmesine ya da d\u00fc\u015fmesine oynayan) pozisyonlar i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu istikrar beklentisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, USD\/CNH paritesinde opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. (Opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme; opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131rsa prim geliri hedefleyen strateji. USD\/CNH: ABD dolar\u0131\/\u00c7in yuan\u0131; CNH, yuan\u0131n offshore yani \u00c7in ana karas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr.) CNH oynakl\u0131k endeksinin 12 ayl\u0131k dip seviyesi olan 4,2 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n yuan\u2019da sert hareket beklemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Politikadaki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik, kurun belli bir bantta kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri destekliyor.<\/p>\n
PBoC\u2019nin bu \u201cistikrarl\u0131\u201d duru\u015fu, 2025 boyunca g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz hedefli politika yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde. O d\u00f6nemde de agresif ve yayg\u0131n gev\u015feme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na direnilmi\u015fti. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, yak\u0131n vadede s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz indirimi ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle merkez bankas\u0131ndan ani bir \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe (faiz indirimi gibi daha destekleyici para politikas\u0131) ba\u011fl\u0131 pozisyonlar belirgin risk ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PBoC LPR\u2019yi %3,00\u2019te tutabilir: DBS, b\u00fcy\u00fcme %5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karken gev\u015feme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; hedefli destek, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck swap oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve USD\/CNH\u2019de opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44927"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44927\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}