Fed yetkilisi Christopher Waller, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Alabama\u2019daki Auburn \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve para politikas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda konu\u015ftu. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda \u201cdenge noktas\u0131\u201dn\u0131n (istihdam\u0131n ne fazla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne de azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) art\u0131k muhtemelen s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Waller, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n uzamas\u0131 ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve istihdam i\u00e7in riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Piyasalar\u0131n da uzun s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Waller, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinde artan bask\u0131 (i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar, i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131) i\u015faretlerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Son d\u00f6nemde i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimlerin mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131 analiz etmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n
Negatif istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6nemlerin her zaman resesyon (ekonomide genel daralma) anlam\u0131na gelmeyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca art arda gelen \u015foklardan sonra enflasyondaki ani s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 \u201cg\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmenin\u201d (ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6r\u00fcp politika de\u011fi\u015ftirmemenin) zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bitmesinin enerji fiyat \u015fokunu daha kolay \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d saymay\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerini (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki enflasyon tahmini) nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini de yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir enerji fiyat\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 etki yaratabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Mart ay\u0131 man\u015fet PCE enflasyonunun (Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in enflasyondaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelmesinin\u201d zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler var. Mart man\u015fet PCE enflasyonunun %3,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenirken, son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi de y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (de\u011feri ba\u015fka varl\u0131klara ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi ihtimalini daha da zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; \u00f6zellikle de istihdam yarat\u0131m\u0131ndaki denge noktas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle. Son tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi yaln\u0131zca 85 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye g\u00f6re belirgin bir yava\u015flama. Bu durum piyasa tepkilerini okumay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa, istihdamda ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler otomatik olarak politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini tetiklemeyebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ay Brent petrol\u00fcn varili 95 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu sinyal, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 ya da opsiyon stratejileri (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle risk y\u00f6netimi) kullanmay\u0131 daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131labilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 21\u2019e t\u0131rmanarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k fikrini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, faizin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen ko\u015fullara benzer \u015fekilde. Bu, yak\u0131n vadede Fed indirimi olmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinde opsiyon kullanmay\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir. Enerji taraf\u0131nda ise enflasyona yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, ham petrol ve ilgili hisselerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanma hakk\u0131) jeopolitik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir korunma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed \u00fcyesi Waller uyard\u0131: istihdam\u0131n denge noktas\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ortado\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 uzarsa enerji \u015foku kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon yaratabilir. PCE %3,5; indirim zay\u0131f. Piyasalar riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor, volatilite t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44926","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44926"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44926\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}