Yuan\u0131n, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) daha zay\u0131f g\u00fcnl\u00fck referans kur belirleyerek y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l sonra ilk kez ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 6,80 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket etmesi bekleniyor. Para birimi, son d\u00f6nemde gelen daha zay\u0131f ekonomik aktivite verilerine ve T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI \u2013 t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yava\u015flamaya ra\u011fmen, ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ihracatla desteklendi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in devlet tahvilleri, 51 trilyon dolarl\u0131k yerel tasarruf havuzu ve yerel bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na (devletin i\u00e7eriden bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131) olan taleple destek buldu. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00c7in devlet tahvili faizi (tahvil getirisi), 1,79\u2019un (200dma) alt\u0131na geriledi. (200dma: 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, fiyatlar\u0131n\/ oranlar\u0131n uzun vadeli e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge.) CNY cinsinden y\u00fcksek kaliteli tahvillerden olu\u015fan bir sepet, Bloomberg k\u00fcresel sabit getirili (fixed income: faizi \u00f6nceden bilinen\/ d\u00fczenli gelir sa\u011flayan varl\u0131klar) endeksinde y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k +%1,1 ile lider.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte %4,5 seviyesindeydi. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek ihracat\u0131 %14,7 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve ihracat\u0131n Yuan\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. O d\u00f6nemde dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 6,80\u2019e do\u011fru yol net g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu; bunda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyreden tahvil piyasas\u0131 da etkiliydi. Ancak Yuan\u2019\u0131 destekleyen temel dinamikler (ekonominin ana itici unsurlar\u0131) daha sonra belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ekonomik ivme (b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanma g\u00fcc\u00fc) \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (GDP: Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %4,6 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve 2025\u2019te elde edilen %5,2\u2019lik y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye g\u00f6re yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti. Ayr\u0131ca Mart 2026 ticaret verileri, ihracatta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde %7,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7ift haneli art\u0131\u015fla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131flayan ekonomik zemin, Yuan\u2019\u0131n seyrini tersine \u00e7evirdi. USD\/CNY (1 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 Yuan etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren kur) \u015fu anda 7,24 civar\u0131nda; bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l konu\u015fulan 6,80 seviyesinden uzak. PBoC da duru\u015funu de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in \u015eubat 2026\u2019da temel 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ana faiz oran\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisi 2,31\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, faiz beklentilerinin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performanstan uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), bu ortam Yuan\u2019da kontroll\u00fc bir zay\u0131flaman\u0131n devam\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 7,28\u20137,30 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi kur seviyesi) USD\/CNY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, veriler zay\u0131f gelmeye devam ederse yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir. Bu strateji, Yuan de\u011fer kaybederse kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sunarken, zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (premium: opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011fa (volatility: kurun sert dalgalanma derecesi) oynayan stratejiler de de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc PBoC kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc sert hareketleri engelleyecek \u015fekilde y\u00f6netiyor. K\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNY \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak (strangle: biri yukar\u0131, biri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonundan olu\u015fan kombinasyon) kurun zay\u0131flama e\u011filimiyle birlikte belirli bir bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinde etkili olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, kur iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck ve beklenmedik bir hareket yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (time decay: opsiyonun vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz: Yuan 6,80\u2019e ko\u015facak m\u0131? PBoC zay\u0131f fixingle frene basarken, ivme tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc: USD\/CNY 7,24\u2019te; b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015f, ihracat d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, faiz indirimi fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44925\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}