USD\/CHF Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Parite 0,7800 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,46 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve haftay\u0131 ikinci kez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes d\u00f6neminde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesi sonras\u0131 risk alg\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczeldi. A\u00e7\u0131klamada, ticari gemiler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7i\u015fin koordineli bir rota \u00fczerinden \u201ctamamen a\u00e7\u0131k\u201d oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131nda 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes ilan etti. Trump ayr\u0131ca, nihai anla\u015fma tamamlanana kadar \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n \u201ctam g\u00fc\u00e7le\u201d s\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ABD ham petrol\u00fc WTI k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 geriledi. (WTI: ABD\u2019de referans al\u0131nan bir t\u00fcr ham petrol fiyat\u0131.) ABD Dolar Endeksi 27 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi, ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131 ve 97,63 civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 98,00 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. (ABD Dolar Endeksi: Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 genel de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks.)<\/p>\n
Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. (Tahvil getirisi: Tahvilin faizinin\/ getirisinin piyasa fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6re olu\u015fan oran\u0131.) CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi yapma ihtimalini daha fazla fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131; bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn \u201cfaiz sabit kal\u0131r\u201d beklentisi yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 d\u00fczeyindeydi. (CME FedWatch: Vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131na bakarak Fed faiz karar\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge.)<\/p>\n
San Francisco Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mary Daly, faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalabilece\u011fini, ancak enflasyon yeniden h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa art\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. (Fed: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131.) Bu hafta sonu yeni bir ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turu beklentisi de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde etkileyebildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artarken ve Fed\u2019in faiz indirece\u011fi beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken USD\/CHF 0,7800 civar\u0131na geriledi. (Risk i\u015ftah\u0131: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi.)<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026\u2019da ise tablo belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131 ve bu bir \u201cayr\u0131\u015fma\u201d yarat\u0131yor. ABD Dolar Endeksi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen 98 alt\u0131 seviyelerin aksine son d\u00f6nemde 105\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7te, enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle Fed\u2019in \u201cfaizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 etkili. (\u201cHigher-for-longer\u201d: Faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutulaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi.)<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelenmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu, 2025\u2019teki a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen 70 dolar alt\u0131 seviyelerden olduk\u00e7a uzak. Bu da Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeni bir gerginli\u011fin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle opsiyonlarla dalgalanmaya (volatilite) kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak cazip olabilir. (Opsiyon: Belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn. Volatilite: Fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131.) Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc tek bir haber ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla sert hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF 0,9150 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 2025\u2019teki h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f paritenin ABD Dolar\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131na ne kadar duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Mevcut y\u00fcksek seviyenin, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde spek\u00fclatif pozisyon i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. USD\/CHF\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, risk alg\u0131s\u0131 aniden iyile\u015firse veya Fed politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine giderse olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe uygun maliyetle maruz kalma yolu olabilir. (Put opsiyonu: Belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanmak veya korunmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Pivot: Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika y\u00f6n\u00fcnde de\u011fi\u015fime gitmesi.)<\/p>\n
2025\u2019ten \u00e7\u0131kan en kritik ders, Fed faiz beklentilerinin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tersine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fiydi. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 \u015fu anda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ayda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6sterse de, jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi veya ekonomide sert yava\u015flama beklentiyi h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu nedenle Fed yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek ve olas\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi\/gev\u015feme yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in faiz vadeli i\u015flemleriyle pozisyon almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. (Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri: Gelecekteki faiz oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiyle i\u015flem g\u00f6ren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler. G\u00fcvercin: Para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015femeye daha yak\u0131n duru\u015f.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131yla petrol sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/CHF 0,7800\u2019e geriledi. 2026\u2019da ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc DXY, y\u00fcksek petrol ve \u201chigher-for-longer\u201d ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44924","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44924"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44924\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}