ABD hisseleri, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc GMT 21.00\u2019de ba\u015flayan 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u0130srail\u2013L\u00fcbnan ate\u015fkesi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes s\u00fcresince H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ticari trafi\u011fe a\u00e7\u0131k kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA) 1.000 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde artarak 49.800\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. S&P 500 %1,5 y\u00fckselerek ilk kez 7.100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ti. Nasdaq %1,7 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Russell 2000 %2,2 y\u00fckseldi. DJIA vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: endeksin gelecekteki fiyat\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) gece saatlerinde y\u00fckseldi ve kapan\u0131\u015fa kadar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc korudu; g\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 48.700\u2019den, \u00f6\u011fleden sonra GMT itibar\u0131yla 49.700\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131, X \u00fczerinden ticari ge\u00e7i\u015fin ate\u015fkes d\u00f6nemi boyunca tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu hatt\u0131 bir daha asla kapatmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 (blockade: limanlara giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 askeri g\u00fc\u00e7le engelleme) bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini de ifade etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim ajans\u0131, \u201cd\u00fc\u015fman\u201d \u00fclkelerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemilerin ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin verilmeyece\u011fini; ABD ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcrerse bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden kapanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. WTI ham petrol\u00fc %14 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine geriledi. Brent petrol %10 d\u00fc\u015ferek 89 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Boeing %3 y\u00fckseldi, Royal Caribbean %10 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; Amazon ve Airbnb de art\u0131da seyretti. Hafta genelinde DJIA %3, S&P 500 %4 ve Nasdaq %6 y\u00fckseldi. Piyasada dikkat, \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ile yakla\u015fan \u00dcFE\u2019ye (PPI\/Producer Price Index: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en, enflasyonun erken g\u00f6stergesi kabul edilen veri) \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201crisk alma\u201d (risk-on: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p hisse gibi daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) dalgas\u0131, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. VIX endeksinin (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) aylar sonra ilk kez 14\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na inmesi olas\u0131. Bu durum, olas\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 (hedging: riskten korunma) \u00e7ok ucuz hale getiriyor. Ate\u015fkesin bozulma ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 SPY\u2019de (S&P 500\u2019\u00fc izleyen ETF) \u201czarar durdurma\u201d ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131m i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money put: mevcut fiyattan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu) ya da do\u011frudan VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Washington\u2019un ablukas\u0131 ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n bo\u011faz\u0131 \u201c\u015fartl\u0131\u201d a\u00e7mas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkili mesajlar\u0131 \u015fimdilik g\u00f6rmezden geliyor. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k fiyatlara tam yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, anla\u015fma \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 g\u00fcnde zay\u0131flarsa oynakl\u0131kta ani s\u0131\u00e7rama (volatility spike: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131) zemini olu\u015fabilir. May\u0131s vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir pozisyon, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 negatife d\u00f6nerse y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019daki %14\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 2020\u2019deki petrol fiyat \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden bu yana en sert tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck gerilemelerden biri. Bu da hareketin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. S\u00fcrecin y\u00f6n\u00fc siyasete ba\u011fl\u0131 olsa da, \u201cprim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (sell premium: opsiyon satarak prim geliri elde etme) amac\u0131yla petrol ETF\u2019lerinde \u201cdemir kondor\u201d (iron condor: belirli bir fiyat band\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) gibi stratejiler kullan\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, fiyat\u0131n yeni bir bantta dengelenmesine oynar; hemen toparlanmas\u0131 ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi yerine yatayla\u015fma bekler.<\/p>\n
Seyahat ve e\u011flence hisselerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc; bunun \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha \u00f6nce ald\u0131klar\u0131 savunmac\u0131 \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131\u201d (short position: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) kapatmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli i\u00e7in havayolu ve kruvaziyer ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir. Bu hisselerde teminat kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (cash-secured put: hisseyi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyattan alma niyetiyle nakit teminatla sat\u0131m opsiyonu satma) da bir se\u00e7enek; prim geliri sa\u011flar ve hisseyi almay\u0131 kabul edece\u011finiz daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi ba\u015ftan netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik \u201crisk primi\u201dnin (risk premium: belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyatlara eklenen ekstra getiri beklentisi) geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle odak, yakla\u015fan \u00dcFE verisi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketlerinin bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na kayabilir. Nisan sonu ve may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131 vadeli opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131, bu \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da Ortado\u011fu ge\u00e7ici olarak sakinle\u015fse bile, piyasan\u0131n temel geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 sert fiyat hareketleri bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ate\u015fkes ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k kalaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131, Wall Street\u2019te risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 co\u015fturdu: Dow 1.000+ puan, S&P 7.100 \u00fcst\u00fc. Petrol \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131, VIX 14 alt\u0131. Opsiyonla ucuz hedge f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44922"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44922\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}