{"id":44921,"date":"2026-04-17T23:24:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T23:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/sp-500-onceki-analizde-ongorulen-nisan-toparlanma-zamanlamasina-paralel-olarak-dalgali-bir-b-dalgasi-yukselisini-surdurerek-7120-hedefliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T23:24:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T23:24:08","slug":"sp-500-onceki-analizde-ongorulen-nisan-toparlanma-zamanlamasina-paralel-olarak-dalgali-bir-b-dalgasi-yukselisini-surdurerek-7120-hedefliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/sp-500-onceki-analizde-ongorulen-nisan-toparlanma-zamanlamasina-paralel-olarak-dalgali-bir-b-dalgasi-yukselisini-surdurerek-7120-hedefliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500, \u00f6nceki analizde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen Nisan toparlanma zamanlamas\u0131na paralel olarak, dalgal\u0131 bir B-dalgas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 7120 hedefliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

1 Nisan tarihli S&P 500 g\u00fcncellemesinde, Elliott Dalga analizi, piyasa geni\u015fli\u011fi (y\u00fckselen hisse say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fenlere g\u00f6re durumu) ve mevsimsellik (y\u0131l\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen tekrar eden hareketler) temel al\u0131narak 18\u201328 Nisan aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011fru W-b tipi bir toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Hedef 6800\u20136900 olarak belirlendi; bu hedef, Wave-a\u2019n\u0131n %61,8\u2013%76,4 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi (ge\u00e7mi\u015fte s\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan oranlarla yap\u0131lan geri \u00e7ekilme \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) ile \u00f6nceki destek\/diren\u00e7 seviyeleri (fiyat\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte s\u0131k durdu\u011fu veya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00f6lgeler) kullan\u0131larak hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Endeks bu b\u00f6lgenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve yeni t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvelerini g\u00f6rerek 7120 seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131p \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ti. Bu hareket, yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 Nisan civar\u0131ndaki \u201cara se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131\u201d ortalama d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f tarihine yakla\u015f\u0131rken ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Piyasa bu mevsimsel kal\u0131b\u0131 tarihsel olarak zamanlar\u0131n %75\u2019inde izlemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

D\u00fczensiz Yatay (Irregular Flat) Dalga Ba\u011flam\u0131<\/h3>\n

2011, 2018 ve 2020 \u00f6rnekleri, 4. dalgada \u201cd\u00fczensiz yatay\u201d yap\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yap\u0131da B dalgas\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman beklenenin \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015fabilir (overshoot: hedefin \u00fczerine ge\u00e7me) ve ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f gelebilir. 7120 seviyesi; 2020 dibinden 2021 tepesine kadar olan Wave-1\u2019in %138,2 uzatma (extension: dalgan\u0131n belirli oranlarda \u201cuzat\u0131larak\u201d projeksiyonla hesaplanmas\u0131) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn, 2022 dibinden (W-2) itibaren ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu seviye Ocak ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 120 puan farkla ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 (7002\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 7120).<\/p>\n

Mart dibi 4. dalga olarak sunuluyor; \u015fu anda \u201calt: 4, alt: 5\u201d \u015feklinde i\u015faretlenen 5. dalgan\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Metin ayr\u0131ca 5. dalgay\u0131 \u201cterminal dalga\u201d (terminal wave: trendin sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken g\u00f6r\u00fclen, son bir h\u0131zlanma\/yorulma hareketi) olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn, 17 Nisan 2026\u2019da, baz\u0131 olumsuz ekonomik i\u015faretlere ra\u011fmen endeksin 7550 civar\u0131nda yeni zirveleri zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanma g\u00f6stergesi) 14\u2019e kadar geriledi; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 rahatl\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterebilir. Bu s\u0131rada son T\u00dcFE raporunda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,1 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indiriminde alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n sakinli\u011fi ile enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 seyri aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi, \u201cterminal dalga\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan son bir zorlanma hareketi olabilir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma y\u00f6ntemlerini g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Riskine Kar\u015f\u0131 Opsiyon Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bir y\u00f6ntem, put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak uzun (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynmakt\u0131r. \u201cZarar kes, kazan\u00e7 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil\u201d yerine, riskin ba\u015ftan belli oldu\u011fu bir yap\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da olan put almak (out-of-the-money put: mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put) tercih edilebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin May\u0131s 7400 putlar\u0131, piyasada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olursa s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 prim \u00f6deyerek kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunar. VIX\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, bu opsiyonlar\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte stresin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlere k\u0131yasla daha ucuz kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmekten \u00e7ok yatay kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in call credit spread satmak (prim toplayan, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozisyon) bir alternatiftir. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 May\u0131s 7600 call satar, ayn\u0131 vadede May\u0131s 7650 call al\u0131r; aradaki farkla prim elde eder ve endeksin vade sonuna kadar 7600\u2019\u00fcn belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine gitmemesini bekler. Bu yap\u0131, piyasa yatay kal\u0131rsa da d\u00fc\u015ferse de avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S&P 500\u2019de Elliott\/maksimum geni\u015flik\/mevsimsellik uyumuyla W-b toparlanma 6800\u20136900 hedefini a\u015ft\u0131; 7120\u20137550 terminal dalga riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. VIX 14, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %3,1: koruma i\u00e7in May\u0131s 7400 put veya 7600\/7650 call spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44921\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}