Mary Daly, San Francisco Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc California \u00dcniversitesi Berkeley\u2019deki Fisher Centre\u2019da konu\u015ftu. Daly, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n di\u011fer mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131y\u0131p yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyat\u0131 \u015foku (petroldeki ani ve sert fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) \u00f6ncesinde, 2026\u2019da bir ya da iki faiz indirimi gerekebilece\u011fini bekledi\u011fini belirtti. Fed\u2019in faizleri mevcut seviyede tutabilece\u011fini ve \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (verileri izleyip karar verme) modunda olduklar\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Daly, enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi gerekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma h\u0131zla biterse faiz indirimi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir; g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ne kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ekledi.<\/p>\n
Daly, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir n\u00fcfustaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n) daha y\u00fcksek verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla (ayn\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcyle daha \u00e7ok \u00fcretim) dengelendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. S\u0131f\u0131r istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeni denge durum (ekonominin \u201cnormal\u201d kabul edilen hali) olabilece\u011fini; demografik yap\u0131 (n\u00fcfusun ya\u015f da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) nedeniyle ABD\u2019nin s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011fru gitti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketicilerin ekonomi konusunda tedirgin oldu\u011funu ancak harcamaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u015eirketlerin temkinli iyimser oldu\u011funu, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 art\u0131racak alan bulundu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn (immigration) zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ve teknoloji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d modunday\u0131z; bu da 2026 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi beklentilerinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim piyasaya belirsizlik kat\u0131yor. Bu durum, bu ay 18\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan VIX endeksine (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) yans\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n daha sert dalgalanmas\u0131) beklemesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa 2026 i\u00e7in bir ya da iki faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yordu; ancak bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f art\u0131k sorgulan\u0131yor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n Fed faizine dair beklentisini g\u00f6steren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) verilerine g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %30\u2019un alt\u0131na indi. Bu, yak\u0131n vadeli gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimiyle finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n rahatlamas\u0131) dayanan pozisyonlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilmesini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcresine ve petrol \u00fczerindeki etkisine ba\u011fl\u0131. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi referans ham petrol) son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2022\u2019de uzun s\u00fcren enerji \u015fokunun Fed\u2019i ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu nedenle petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k izlenecek ana de\u011fi\u015fken. Y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyon) s\u0131zd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyaller, piyasa i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici olur.<\/p>\n
S\u0131f\u0131r i\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeni normal olabilece\u011fi fikri, \u00f6nemli bir bak\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fimi. Son istihdam raporu yaln\u0131zca 85 binlik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterse de, Fed bunu faiz indirimi gerektiren bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6rmeyebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek verimlilik, yava\u015flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu anda telafi ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni (t\u00fcketicilerin ekonomi alg\u0131s\u0131) d\u00fc\u015ferken, perakende harcamalar\u0131n (ma\u011faza ve online sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n) ge\u00e7en ay %0,5 artmas\u0131 aras\u0131nda belirgin bir kopukluk var. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lma olursa, ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015febilir. Bu nedenle yakla\u015fan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve g\u00fcven endeksi verileri, piyasay\u0131 hareket ettirebilecek kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Fed\u2019de senaryo de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Mary Daly, enerji \u015fokunun enflasyona s\u0131zmas\u0131n\u0131 izliyor; \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d e\u011filimi 2026 indirimlerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131, oynakl\u0131k (VIX) artt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44920\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}