USD\/CAD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi ve 1,3670 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,26 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fse de Kanada Dolar\u0131 (CAD) g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi i\u00e7in parite bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi\u2019nin ate\u015fkes s\u0131ras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ticari gemi ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelere odakland\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, haftalard\u0131r g\u00fczerg\u00e2h \u00e7evresinde s\u00fcren gerginli\u011fin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma, arz kesintisi (tedarikte bozulma) endi\u015feleri azal\u0131nca petrol\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. ABD ham petrol\u00fc West Texas Intermediate (WTI), varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve son haftalar\u0131n en sert g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinden birini kaydetti; K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesinden ihracat ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n normale d\u00f6nmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada Dolar\u0131, normalde enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte hareket etmesine ra\u011fmen y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum, ana etkinin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flama oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 97,80 civar\u0131nda, son haftalar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Piyasa, ABD faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in faiz beklentisini hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge), y\u0131l sonuna kadar Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn (Fed: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %38,2 g\u00f6sterdi; \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn bu oran %25,9\u2019du. Kanada\u2019da Mart T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7er) verisi Pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji \u015foku nedeniyle enflasyonun h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Tiff Macklem, ekonominin \u201cdaha y\u00fcksek fiyat seviyeleriyle\u201d kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, sert bir yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7madan enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma (enflasyon beklentilerini sabitleme) g\u00f6revine de\u011findi.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015fse de ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; bu ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fma izleniyor. Normalde petrol zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201cloonie\u201d (Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n piyasa takma ad\u0131) bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Piyasa \u015fu anda enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki hamlesine odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolara gerilemesi, ABD\u2019de enflasyon endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131nca ABD dolar\u0131nda genel bir zay\u0131flama g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu da piyasada y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde Fed\u2019in faiz indirebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Mart ay\u0131 istihdam raporu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fuma g\u00f6stererek bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekledi. ABD ekonomisinin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131, \u015fimdilik USD\/CAD\u2019i a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iten ana unsur.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem, Pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada enflasyon verisi. T\u00dcFE beklenenden y\u00fcksek gelirse, BoC\u2019nin dikkatli kalmas\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir; ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Fed\u2019in gev\u015femeyi (faiz indirimi) tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu politika fark\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u015fu anda pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ana tema ve Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak, petrol ile Kanada dolar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu kopu\u015fun kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fi de unutulmamal\u0131. 2024\u2019e kadar olan verilerde, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ile loonie aras\u0131ndaki pozitif ili\u015fki olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131, zamanla Kanada ekonomisini zay\u0131flatabilir. Bu nedenle, piyasa yeniden emtialara odaklan\u0131rsa Kanada dolar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye oynamak riskli olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama z\u0131t etkenler nedeniyle, her iki y\u00f6ne de sert harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli vadede, belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %8,5 ile 3 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, piyasan\u0131n enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 belirgin bir fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda net y\u00f6n se\u00e7mek yerine, opsiyonlarla bu oynakl\u0131k beklentisini de\u011ferlendirmek daha etkili bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ayr\u0131\u015fma: USD\/CAD 1,3670\u2019e gerilerken CAD, d\u00fc\u015fen petrole ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla petrol 80$\u2019a indi; zay\u0131f DXY ve artan Fed indirimi beklentisi pariteyi bask\u0131l\u0131yor. BoC\/T\u00dcFE kritik; volatilite %8,5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44915\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}