ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Truth Social\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131mda, ABD\u2019nin B2 bombard\u0131man u\u00e7aklar\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019dan \u201cn\u00fckleer toz\u201d alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. (B2, uzun menzilli ve radara yakalanmas\u0131 zor bir stratejik bombard\u0131man u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131d\u0131r; \u201cn\u00fckleer toz\u201d ise n\u00fckleer serpinti\/radyasyonlu kal\u0131nt\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen sert bir ifadedir.)<\/p>\n
Trump, \u201chi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde\u201d para el de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Anla\u015fman\u0131n L\u00fcbnan\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin L\u00fcbnan\u2019la ayr\u0131 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Hizbullah sorununu ele alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi. (Hizbullah, L\u00fcbnan merkezli silahl\u0131 ve siyasi bir \u00f6rg\u00fctt\u00fcr.)<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130srail\u2019in art\u0131k L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131 bombalamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin bunu yasaklad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da yazd\u0131. \u015eunlar\u0131 ekledi: \u201cYeter art\u0131k!\u201d<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc finansal piyasalarda \u201crisk alma\u201d i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (Risk alma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi demektir.) Yay\u0131n saatinde Dow Jones Industrial Average %1,5 y\u00fckselirken, Nasdaq Composite ve S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn her biri %1 artt\u0131. (Bunlar ABD borsas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca endeksleridir.)<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesi olarak yorumlan\u0131yor. Bu durum, piyasadaki \u201crisk primini\u201d azaltabilir. (Risk primi, belirsizlik ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma gibi riskler nedeniyle fiyatlara eklenen fazladan maliyettir.) \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda beklenen piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) gerilemesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nday\u0131z. Nisan 2024\u2019te \u0130ran-\u0130srail geriliminde 21\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayan VIX endeksi bu i\u015flemde yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. (VIX, S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir.)<\/p>\n
Bu durum s\u00fcrerse, ham petroldeki risk primi h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde azalabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda arz\u0131n kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131 riski zay\u0131flar. (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131d\u0131r.) Sava\u015f endi\u015feleriyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almay\u0131 f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. (Vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme, ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r; put opsiyonu, belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 verir ve fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131r.) Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 2025\u2019te piyasay\u0131 inceledi\u011fimizde, Orta Do\u011fu man\u015fetlerine fiyatlar\u0131n sert tepki verdi\u011fini s\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu da \u015fimdi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n ilk olumlu tepkisi, daha geni\u015f bir \u201crisk alma\u201d e\u011filiminin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bunun s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. S&P 500 (SPX) \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almay\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle ula\u015ft\u0131rma ETF\u2019lerini (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu alan\u0131 do\u011frudan destekler. (Call opsiyonu, belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 verir; ETF, bir endeks\/sekt\u00f6r\u00fc takip eden ve hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fondur.) Bu, ge\u00e7en haftaki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 anketlerinde k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle daha da dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: bo\u011fa-ay\u0131 fark\u0131 -%5. (Bo\u011fa-ay\u0131 fark\u0131, iyimserlerle k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlerin oran fark\u0131d\u0131r; negatif de\u011fer piyasada k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.)<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan fayda g\u00f6ren sekt\u00f6rlerde, \u00f6zellikle savunma hisselerinde ve alt\u0131n gibi \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131klarda zay\u0131flama bekliyoruz. (G\u00fcvenli liman, belirsizlikte de\u011ferini daha iyi korudu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen varl\u0131klard\u0131r.) Gerilimin artmas\u0131yla bu y\u0131l \u015fimdiye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 y\u00fckselen havac\u0131l\u0131k ve savunma ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu almay\u0131 inceliyoruz. Bu savunma hisselerinin 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda da y\u00fckseldi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; alt\u0131n, ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.500 dolar seviyesini test ettikten sonra geri \u00e7ekilirken bir d\u00fczeltme mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. (Ons, alt\u0131n fiyatlamas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k birimidir.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Man\u015fet: Trump\u2019tan \u0130ran\u2019a \u201cn\u00fckleer toz\u201d \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131! Orta Do\u011fu tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte; piyasalar risk al\u0131yor, VIX izleniyor. Petrol risk primi azalabilir; Brent\u2019te put, S&P 500\u2019de call ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44911\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}