\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en t\u00fcm ticari deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, ate\u015fkes s\u00fcresinin geri kalan\u0131nda tamamen a\u00e7\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Araghchi, gemilerin \u0130ran Limanlar ve Denizcilik Kurumu\u2019nun belirledi\u011fi koordineli bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131 (birlikte planlanm\u0131\u015f ge\u00e7i\u015f rotas\u0131) kullanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Truth Social\u2019da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201ctam ge\u00e7i\u015fe\u201d a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131. Trump, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u201ci\u015flem\u201d (taraflar\u0131n \u00fczerinde anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fma\/paket) \u201c%100 tamamlanana\u201d kadar \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n (denizden uygulanan engelleme ve kontrol) s\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. S\u00fcrecin h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerlemesi gerekti\u011fini, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun zaten m\u00fczakere edildi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Haberlerin ard\u0131ndan, yay\u0131mlanma saati itibar\u0131yla ABD hisse senedi endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) %0,8 ile %1,2 aras\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2014 dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 97,70\u2019in alt\u0131na indi; \u015eubat sonundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,5\u2019ten fazla geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik \u00f6zel bir abluka s\u00fcrse bile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131na eklenen jeopolitik risk primini (belirsizlik ve gerilim nedeniyle fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerine binen ek pay) azaltabilir. Bu kritik deniz ge\u00e7idinden d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri ge\u00e7iyor. Son gerilimler, WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerini (ABD tipi ham petrol i\u00e7in ileri tarihli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 2026 Mart ay\u0131 boyunca varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutmu\u015ftu. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferse fayda sa\u011flayabilecek stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2-3 ay i\u00e7inde vadesi dolan ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerine y\u00f6nelik sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan hak) almak.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme, genel piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (VIX \u2014 ABD hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) muhtemelen 20\u2019li d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden gerileyebilir. 2025 ilkbahar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici gerilim azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iki haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 d\u00fc\u015fmesi buna benzer bir \u00f6rnekti. VIX veya VIX ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019leri satmak (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte al\u0131p satmak) daha sakin bir piyasadan yararlanma yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji maliyetlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bu y\u0131l piyasay\u0131 bask\u0131layan enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan azalt\u0131r. 2026 Mart T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI \u2014 t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu g\u00f6steren veri) raporunda enflasyonun %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, bu ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nemini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu geli\u015fme, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yaz aylar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7esini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu da hisse senetleri i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekler; S&P 500 endeksinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynayan hak) daha cazip hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki gerileme, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla (risk-on: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) sermayenin g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen dolardan daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli olan varl\u0131klara kaymas\u0131n\u0131n sonucu. DXY\u2019nin 2026 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez 97,70\u2019in alt\u0131na inmesi, teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (grafik seviyelerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesi) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu e\u011filim, d\u00f6viz ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarla dolar aleyhine pozisyonlar\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle) destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n tablo k\u0131r\u0131lgan; \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik abluka, \u201ci\u015flemin\u201d tamamlanmas\u0131 beklenirken s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. M\u00fczakerelerden gelebilecek olumsuz ba\u015fl\u0131klar, alg\u0131y\u0131 h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirip petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeniden yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu nedenle pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutmak ve tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli (maksimum kayb\u0131 ba\u015ftan belli) opsiyon stratejileri kullanmak \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ate\u015fkes boyunca a\u00e7\u0131k: \u0130ran koordineli rota duyurdu, Trump \u201ctam ge\u00e7i\u015f\u201d dese de \u0130ran\u2019a abluka s\u00fcrecek. Piyasalar co\u015ftu: vadeli endeksler y\u00fckseldi, dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; petrol\/VIX bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44905","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44905"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44905\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44905"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44905"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44905"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}