K\u00fcresel piyasalar, oda\u011f\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011finde kalmas\u0131yla yatay seyrediyor. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Hisse ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131 ise son y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan duraklad\u0131.<\/p>\n
MSCI d\u00fcnya hisse endeksi (k\u00fcresel hisse performans\u0131n\u0131 izleyen g\u00f6sterge) rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerde uzun vadeli devlet tahvili faizleri (\u00fclkelerin uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilerken, ABD dolar\u0131 \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmesine ra\u011fmen zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
BBH, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda dolar\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki faiz seviyeleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) y\u00f6nlendirece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Banka, DXY\u2019nin (Dolar Endeksi; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, enerji kaynakl\u0131 \u015fokun (petrol\/do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert hareketlerin ekonomiye etkisi) bitmemi\u015f olabilece\u011fini, ancak en k\u00f6t\u00fc d\u00f6nemin geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) da mart sonunun dip nokta oldu\u011funu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca dolar konusunda yap\u0131sal olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini koruyor; gerek\u00e7e olarak ABD\u2019nin ticaret ve g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131na duyulan g\u00fcven, ABD\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7e\/bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi (kamu maliyesinin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi) ve Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) siyasalla\u015fmas\u0131 riskini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi etraf\u0131nda yatayla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunun da risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bir s\u00fcre dengede tuttu\u011fu ve Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Ancak bu g\u00f6rece sakin d\u00f6nem yerini yeniden belirsizli\u011fe b\u0131rakt\u0131. Son uydu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerinde \u0130ran\u2019daki n\u00fckleer tesislerde yeniden hareketlilik g\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle Brent petrol bu ay 104 dolara y\u00fckseldi; bu da enerji \u015fokunun tamamen geride kalmayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 96,00\u2013100,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, oynakl\u0131k satanlar (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynayan ve opsiyon primi toplayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar) i\u00e7in 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flad\u0131. Ancak 2026\u2019ya girerken bu bant a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131; DXY son d\u00f6nemde 94,75 ile dip g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lma, piyasan\u0131n art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca basit faiz farklar\u0131na g\u00f6re i\u015flem yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Eski bant ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini yitirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, dolar opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n dip seviyelerinden yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcyor; bu da strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131p prim toplama) daha az cazip hale getiriyor. Bizce yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar art\u0131k dolar\u0131n sabit\/pariteye ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu kur \u00e7iftlerinde put spread al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p\/satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, riski ve kazanc\u0131 belirleyen strateji) de\u011ferlendirmeli. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine pozisyon al\u0131rken riski tan\u0131mlar ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artabilece\u011fi ortamda daha kontroll\u00fc bir yap\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te not edilen dolar aleyhine arg\u00fcmanlar art\u0131k piyasan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi haline geliyor. \u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7e g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; Kongre B\u00fct\u00e7e Ofisi\u2019nin (CBO) son raporu, ABD\u2019de borcun mill\u00ee gelire oran\u0131n\u0131 %110\u2019a koyuyor; bu seviye II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu temel bask\u0131n\u0131n (makroekonomik nedenlerden kaynaklanan kal\u0131c\u0131 etki) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir d\u00f6nemde dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine gev\u015femeye daha yak\u0131n duru\u015f) ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re tabloyu belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faizleri sabit tutarken, Fed\u2019in son s\u00f6ylemi dolar\u0131n faiz getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 (dolar varl\u0131klardan elde edilen ek faiz) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde eritti. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, dolar\u0131n ABD verilerindeki olumlu s\u00fcrprizlere (beklentiden iyi gelen verilere) art\u0131k eskisi kadar olumlu tepki vermemesinin temel nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ate\u015fkes ve enerji riski fiyatlan\u0131rken k\u00fcresel piyasalar yatay, Brent 100$ alt\u0131. MSCI rekor. DXY band\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131, volatilite y\u00fckseliyor; Fed g\u00fcvercin, ABD bor\u00e7 endi\u015fesi dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44901","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44901"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44901\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44901"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44901"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44901"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}