ING, USD\/CAD paritesinin (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kanada dolar\u0131) y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru kademeli olarak gerilemesini bekliyor. Ana neden, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 3. \u00e7eyrekte (3Q) faiz indirimlerine yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Kanada dolar\u0131na (CAD, \u201cloonie\u201d) en \u00f6nemli deste\u011fin Kanada i\u00e7 ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ABD para politikas\u0131ndan gelece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kanada taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha zay\u0131f. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015fan USMCA (ABD-Meksika-Kanada Anla\u015fmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve bunun istihdam \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkileri oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re BoC\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenmiyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 baz puan (bp, faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,30) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi) fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ING\u2019nin senaryosunda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor ve gerilimin azalmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fini) art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ko\u015fullarda ING, USMCA kaynakl\u0131 riskler artmadan \u00f6nce USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,36 seviyesine d\u00f6nmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Makale, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fi notunu i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u201cFed faiz indirimine ba\u015flarsa ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flar\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen hareketle do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f USD\/CAD\u2019i ge\u00e7ici olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti, ancak parite sonras\u0131nda yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti. \u015eimdi parite 1,3750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k.<\/p>\n
Ana etken, net bir Fed gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden (faiz indirimlerinin arka arkaya gelmesi) iki \u00fclke taraf\u0131nda da artan politika belirsizli\u011fine kayd\u0131. Mart ay\u0131 ABD T\u00dcFE verisi (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kal\u0131nca Fed beklemeye ge\u00e7ti ve \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d (kararlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131) bir duru\u015f sinyali verdi. Kanada\u2019da ise son \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Anketi (Labour Force Survey) istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca 15 bin g\u00f6sterdi; bu da BoC\u2019nin Fed\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirimi yapmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131na bir miktar destek veriyor. WTI tipi ham petrol (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyor ve 2022 \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Teoride bu durum USD\/CAD\u2019i a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeli. Ancak bu etki, Kanada i\u00e7 ekonomisine ili\u015fkin artan endi\u015felerle dengeleniyor.<\/p>\n
Temmuz 2026\u2019ya planlanan USMCA anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemin en b\u00fcy\u00fck riski olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Washington\u2019dan gelen siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ihracat\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in risk yarat\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Kanada dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131ma konusunda daha temkinli.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ortam, USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call option, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike) 1,3900 olan ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki ay i\u00e7inde vadesi dolan bir call opsiyonu; USMCA ile ilgili olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya zay\u0131f Kanada verisiyle paritede ani y\u00fckseli\u015f olursa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu stratejide risk, parite beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ferse opsiyon primiyle (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller nedeniyle, ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi yakla\u015f\u0131rken \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) artmas\u0131 da olas\u0131. Bir di\u011fer strateji \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak) kurmakt\u0131r. Bu pozisyon, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket olursa kazand\u0131r\u0131r; yani belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fiyor mu? ING, Fed\u2019in 3\u00c7\u2019te faiz indirimine d\u00f6nmesiyle dolar zay\u0131flar, parite kademeli d\u00fc\u015fer diyor; BoC pasif, USMCA belirsizli\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44898","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44898"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44898\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44898"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44898"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44898"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}