EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f, kurun \u00fc\u00e7 seans \u00fcst \u00fcste 1,18\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamamas\u0131yla duraklad\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), 29 Nisan\u2019daki Y\u00f6netim Konseyi toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini frenliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi, ancak ECB uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n (banka i\u00e7inde haz\u0131rlanan temel senaryo) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor. IMF, 2026 Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %1,3\u2019ten %1,1\u2019e indirdi.<\/p>\n
Euro ve sterlinin ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 toparlanma s\u00fcrecinde oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131 ve artan jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fi gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6nlendirme (faiz patikas\u0131na dair net sinyal) vermemeyi savundu.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fin net \u015fekilde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ge\u00e7en hafta \u00fc\u00e7 seans \u00fcst \u00fcste 1,1800 diren\u00e7 seviyesini (fiyat\u0131n a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) k\u0131ramad\u0131. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu durum, 1,18 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) \u201czararda\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (out-of-the-money call: mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131dan alma hakk\u0131; \u015fu an i\u00e7in k\u00e2rs\u0131z) sat\u0131p prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplama fikrini k\u0131sa vadede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 1,18 seviyesi ayn\u0131 zamanda uzun vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik diren\u00e7le \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; bu da \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici (piyasay\u0131 h\u0131zla hareketlendiren haber\/olay) olmadan k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu duraklaman\u0131n ana nedenlerinden biri ECB. Banka, 29 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini \u00f6zellikle zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS: k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7mekte kullan\u0131lan swap s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) bu ay faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %15\u2019in alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da ECB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz, destekleyici politika) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131n (daha y\u00fcksek faiz nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7ekme etkisi) olmamas\u0131, euronun k\u0131sa vadede belirgin kazan\u0131m sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed, piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na itiraz etmiyor; bu da belirgin bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131) May\u0131s\u2019ta yap\u0131lacak bir sonraki toplant\u0131da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: y\u00fczde 0,01; 25 bp = %0,25) art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor. ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, EUR\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015flerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam edebilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00f6viz opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) art\u0131yor. Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) 8,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klama etraf\u0131nda sert bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, uzun straddle gibi (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giderse gitsin kazan\u00e7 hedefler) iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanan stratejilere alan a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
2025 sonlar\u0131nda Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: oynakl\u0131k toplant\u0131ya kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ECB\u2019nin beklenen g\u00fcvercin mesaj\u0131 vermesi durumunda, 29 Nisan a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan hemen sonra k\u0131sa strangle gibi (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; fiyat belirli aral\u0131kta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u0131r) stratejilerle \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (opsiyon primi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanma) planlanabilir. Bu, opsiyon primindeki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir \u201c\u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften\u201d (event sonras\u0131 primlerin h\u0131zla gerilemesi) yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131lara ra\u011fmen euroda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe \u015fimdiden pozisyon almak erken olabilir. IMF 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %1,1\u2019e indirse de, son Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI: \u015firket y\u00f6neticileri anketiyle ekonomik faaliyeti \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge) verileri hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tabloya i\u015faret etti. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli (kay\u0131p \u00f6nceden belli) yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin do\u011frudan \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f\u201d (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) yerine put spread almak (sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) daha temkinli olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD\u2019de ralli nefes kesti: kur \u00fc\u00e7 seanst\u0131r 1,18\u2019i a\u015fam\u0131yor. ECB 29 Nisan\u2019da g\u00fcvercin, Fed \u015fahin kal\u0131yor; faiz fark\u0131 bask\u0131 yaparken opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor. Euroda sert sat\u0131\u015f erken.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44892\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}