Hindistan\u2019da bankalar\u0131n kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 16 Mart itibar\u0131yla %16,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde bu oran %13,8\u2019di. Bu art\u0131\u015f, bankalar\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %16,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, ekonomide talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum bankac\u0131l\u0131k hisselerini destekleyebilir ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalarda yakla\u015fan \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. T\u00fcrev (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar bunu Nifty Bank endeksi i\u00e7in \u201cy\u00fckseli\u015f\u201d sinyali olarak yorumlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Nifty Bank endeksi veya HDFC ve ICICI gibi tekil bankalar \u00fczerinde May\u0131s-Haziran vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan hak) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bir di\u011fer y\u00f6ntem, \u201czarar yazd\u0131rma fiyat\u0131\u201d daha uzak olan (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan daha uzakta kalan) sat\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) satmak olabilir. Bu sayede prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplan\u0131r ve olumlu havan\u0131n banka hisseleri i\u00e7in destek olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyele kat\u0131l\u0131rken riski \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) %5,1 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (RBI) zorlayabilir. 2022 ve 2023\u2019teki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, RBI\u2019nin ekonomide a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 (\u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ad\u0131m atabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentileri daha ileri bir tarihe \u00f6telenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 (de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demesini sabit faize \u00e7eviren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullan\u0131labilir. Gecelik Endeks Swap\u2019ta (OIS: gecelik faiz \u00fczerinden fiyatlanan swap) sabit faizi \u00f6demek, piyasan\u0131n RBI\u2019nin Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faiz indirimi yerine s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f) koruma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan bir i\u015flemdir. Tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi bu ay %7,21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Rupisi\u2019nin (INR) de g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi olas\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fcksek faizin s\u00fcrmesi, yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fini (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m) destekleyebilir. 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %7,5 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, USD\/INR vadeli kontrat sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (dolar\/rupee paritesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi) veya dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda INR al\u0131m opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 rupee lehine hak) ile ifade edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019da kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 16 Mart\u2019ta %16,1\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: Bankac\u0131l\u0131k rallisi kap\u0131da m\u0131? Talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, bilan\u00e7olar umut veriyor; Nifty Bank\u2019ta opsiyonlarla y\u00fckseli\u015f denenebilir. Faiz indirimi \u00f6telenebilir, INR g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44890"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44890\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}