Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), kamuya ait petrol rafinerilerine (devlete ba\u011fl\u0131 rafineri \u015firketleri) spot piyasadan ABD Dolar\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. D\u00f6viz (yabanc\u0131 para) ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in State Bank of India \u00fczerinden sa\u011flanan \u00f6zel bir kredi hatt\u0131n\u0131 kullanmalar\u0131 istendi.<\/p>\n
Bu ad\u0131m, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde de uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ama\u00e7, bu y\u0131l %3\u2019ten fazla de\u011fer kaybeden ve rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri g\u00f6ren rupiye (Hindistan para birimi) olan bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak.<\/p>\n
Kredi hatt\u0131; Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum ve Bharat Petroleum i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 \u015firket birlikte, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 5,2 milyon varillik rafineri kapasitesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fliyor.<\/p>\n
Hedef, rafinerilerin dolar talebini azaltarak USD\/INR kurunda (ABD Dolar\u0131\/Hindistan rupisi) istikrar\u0131 desteklemek. Bu ad\u0131m, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde geldi.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin kamu rafinerilerine spot dolar al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smaya y\u00f6nelik talimat\u0131, USD\/INR kurunda bir s\u00fcre kontroll\u00fc istikrar (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya y\u00f6n vererek sert hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131) beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu, kurun 84,50 civar\u0131ndaki rekor seviyelere yakla\u015fmas\u0131nda etkili olan dolar talebini do\u011frudan azaltmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck bir m\u00fcdahale. K\u0131sa vadede kur \u00fczerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak rupideki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n temel nedenleri ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel petrol fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (hisse ve tahvil gibi finansal varl\u0131klara k\u0131sa\/orta vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan yabanc\u0131lar) ge\u00e7en ay Hindistan hisselerinden 2,5 milyar dolardan fazla \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu nedenle RBI ad\u0131m\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trend de\u011fi\u015fiminden \u00e7ok ge\u00e7ici bir dengeleme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri kur, faiz, emtia gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Merkez bankas\u0131, kurda sert ve d\u00fczensiz de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek istedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131labilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle\/strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla opsiyon sat\u0131p prim geliri hedefleme). Burada ama\u00e7, \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplayarak kurun bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak.<\/p>\n
Bu ad\u0131m, k\u0131sa vadede USD\/INR i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na da geliyor. Paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak daha riskli hale gelebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc RBI, bu seviyelere h\u0131zl\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fi engellemeyi hedefliyor. Bunun yerine 84,75 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, kontroll\u00fc ortamdan yararlanmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilecek bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
2022 ve 2023\u2019te k\u00fcresel dalgalanman\u0131n rupiyi bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde benzer bir y\u00f6ntem uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6neme ait veriler, RBI ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 tamamen tersine \u00e7evirmedi\u011fini; ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, bunu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rupi y\u00fckseli\u015fi i\u015fareti de\u011fil, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn y\u00f6netilmesi \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak okumak daha do\u011fru olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupiye nefes ald\u0131racak hamle! RBI, kamu rafinerilerine spot dolar\u0131 k\u0131s, SBI kredi hatt\u0131na ge\u00e7 dedi. Ama\u00e7 USD\/INR\u2019de istikrar; oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015febilir. Brent y\u00fcksek, yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7ici dengeleme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44888\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}