\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Sarah Breeden, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir programda, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n piyasa gerilimlerinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimalini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Breeden, ge\u00e7mi\u015f krizlerden \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun yerine \u00f6zel piyasalar, devlet tahvili piyasalar\u0131 ve \u015fi\u015fen de\u011ferlemeler (varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n temel g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re fazla y\u00fckselmesi) gibi ba\u015fka alanlara kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Breeden; kald\u0131ra\u00e7 (bor\u00e7la pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fctme), karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k (\u00fcr\u00fcn ve risk yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zor anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131), yo\u011funla\u015fma (riskin az say\u0131da kurum\/\u00fcr\u00fcnde birikmesi) ve \u015feffaf olmama (verinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131) gibi unsurlara dikkat \u00e7ekti. Bu fakt\u00f6rlerin ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelmesi durumunda piyasalar\u0131n \u201czorlu bir d\u00f6nem\u201d ya\u015fayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Sterlin\u2019de belirgin bir tepki g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. GBP\/USD, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015ftan bu yana 1,3530 civar\u0131nda dar bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00dcst d\u00fczey bir BoE yetkilisi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n piyasa streslerinin birle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Kald\u0131ra\u00e7, karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ve \u015fi\u015fen de\u011ferlemeler gibi tan\u0131d\u0131k riskler; \u00f6zel kredi (bankalar d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki fonlar\u0131n \u015firketlere verdi\u011fi krediler) ve devlet tahvili piyasalar\u0131 gibi alanlarda yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar ayn\u0131 anda alevlenirse piyasalar i\u00e7in \u201csars\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131\u201d bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fanabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi de\u011ferlemeleri y\u00fcksek seyrederken, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck F\/K (gelecek 12 ay beklenen k\u00e2ra g\u00f6re fiyat\/kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131) rasyosunun 24\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bu ortamda b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, uzun vadeli pozisyonlar\u0131 satmadan olas\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan korunma sa\u011flayabilir. Benzer yakla\u015f\u0131m, 2020\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sert geri \u00e7ekilmelerde i\u015fe yaram\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019de \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili (gilt) piyasas\u0131nda ya\u015fanan \u00e7alkant\u0131 da devlet tahvili piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bozulabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel \u00f6zel kredi piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte kald\u0131ra\u00e7 riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00fcksek getirili (y\u00fcksek riskli) tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde opsiyonlar\u0131 veya CDS\u2019leri (kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131: \u015firket borcunun \u00f6denmeme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u015firket bor\u00e7lar\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da kritik deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki gerilim, enerji piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da risk yarat\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 bir aksama, Brent petrol\u00fc (Kuzey Denizi referans petrol\u00fc) fiyat\u0131n\u0131 80 dolar band\u0131ndan, ge\u00e7mi\u015f arz \u015foklar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 110 dolar seviyelerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon) petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecek tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) temkinli bir pozisyonlanma arac\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda, belirgin bir \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d d\u00f6neminde g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi beklenir. GBP\/USD \u015fu an sakin olsa da, Sterlin\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan faydalanacak pozisyonlar kademeli kurulabilir. GBP\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonu almak, 1,3500 alt\u0131na olas\u0131 sert harekete kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle haz\u0131rl\u0131k sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f, piyasa streslerinin ayn\u0131 anda patlama riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor! BoE\u2019den Breeden; kald\u0131ra\u00e7, \u015feffafl\u0131k eksikli\u011fi ve \u015fi\u015fen de\u011ferlemelerle \u00f6zel kredi ile tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda sars\u0131nt\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44884"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44884\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}