{"id":44875,"date":"2026-04-17T11:55:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T11:55:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbank-ekonomistleri-gelismis-ekonomiler-1970lere-kiyasla-daha-sert-kuresel-petrol-uretimi-dususlerine-ragmen-daha-sinirli-zarar-gorecek\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T11:55:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T11:55:20","slug":"commerzbank-ekonomistleri-gelismis-ekonomiler-1970lere-kiyasla-daha-sert-kuresel-petrol-uretimi-dususlerine-ragmen-daha-sinirli-zarar-gorecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbank-ekonomistleri-gelismis-ekonomiler-1970lere-kiyasla-daha-sert-kuresel-petrol-uretimi-dususlerine-ragmen-daha-sinirli-zarar-gorecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank ekonomistleri: Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler, 1970\u2019lere k\u0131yasla daha sert k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcretimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine ra\u011fmen daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zarar g\u00f6recek"},"content":{"rendered":"

K\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcretimi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ablukaya al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi b\u00f6lgesindeki petrol \u00fcretim ile y\u00fckleme noktalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar nedeniyle son 50 y\u0131ldaki t\u00fcm petrol krizlerine k\u0131yasla daha sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. IEA\u2019ya (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) g\u00f6re \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00fcnl\u00fck ham petrol \u00fcretimi en az 10 milyon varil azald\u0131; bu da k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %12\u2019sine denk geliyor.<\/p>\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ise 1970\u2019lerdeki petrol \u015foklar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artt\u0131. 1974\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama petrol fiyat\u0131 1973\u2019e g\u00f6re %250 daha y\u00fcksekti. 1979\u2019da ham petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %125 \u00fczerindeydi. Bu y\u0131l ise fiyat\u0131n, \u00f6nceki y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131na g\u00f6re en fazla %60 daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Enerji Yo\u011funlu\u011fu Ve Ekonomik Etki<\/h3>\n

Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler bug\u00fcn, 50 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla \u00fcretilen her birim \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (GSYH) ba\u015f\u0131na daha az petrol kullan\u0131yor. \u201cEnerji yo\u011funlu\u011fu\u201d denilen bu g\u00f6sterge, ekonominin ayn\u0131 \u00fcretimi yapmak i\u00e7in ne kadar enerji\/petrol t\u00fcketti\u011fini anlat\u0131r; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc daha az a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. \u0130lk petrol krizinde Almanya\u2019n\u0131n petrol faturas\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin %2,5\u2019i kadar artarken Japonya\u2019da art\u0131\u015f neredeyse %4 olmu\u015ftu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k varil ba\u015f\u0131na 40 dolarl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, incelenen d\u00f6rt \u00fclkede petrol faturas\u0131n\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin %0,5 ila %1\u2019i kadar art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, tedarik zincirinde (\u00fcretimden sevkiyata uzanan malzeme\/lojistik ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) aksama ihtimali ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli hasar riski nedeniyle belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. Makale bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in bu tablo, petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde yap\u0131sal olarak pahal\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 2025 krizinde fiyatlar yaln\u0131zca %60 y\u00fckseldi; bu da ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki \u00f6rneklere g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yd\u0131 ve \u201czarar yazmadan vade sonu\u201d anlam\u0131nda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasadan uzak kalan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (out-of-the-money call: piyasadaki fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip al\u0131m opsiyonu) b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 de\u011fersiz \u015fekilde vade bitirdi. \u015eu anda CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 35 civar\u0131nda; bu seviye 2025\u2019teki 80 \u00fczeri zirvenin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Bu da piyasan\u0131n bu dersi yava\u015f yava\u015f fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Faizler Ve Varl\u0131k S\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 Aras\u0131 Pozisyonlama<\/h3>\n

GSYH \u00fczerindeki beklenenden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck darbe, faiz t\u00fcrevleri (faiz oranlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda piyasalar, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan agresif faiz indirimleri fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak ekonomik hasar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu indirimler tam olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015fti. Bu da bir sonraki enerji \u015fokunda, Eurodolar veya Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131nda (politika faizine dair beklentileri yans\u0131tan kontratlar) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d beklentilere (faiz indirimi e\u011filimi) kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alman\u0131n f\u0131rsat yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 hasar uyar\u0131s\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu durum fiyatlar i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir taban olu\u015fturur. Nisan 2026 tarihli son raporlar, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki baz\u0131 y\u00fckleme tesislerinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 2025 \u00f6ncesi kapasitenin alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasada bir \u201crisk primi\u201dni (belirsizlik ve arz riski nedeniyle fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerine eklenen pay) canl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu nedenle daha uzun vadeli petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileri tarihte teslimat \u00fczerinden fiyatlanan kontratlar) veya al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 tutmak, onar\u0131mlar\u0131n yava\u015f ilerlemesine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir korunma (hedge) olabilir.<\/p>\n

Ekonomiler daha az petrol yo\u011fun oldu\u011fundan, \u201cg\u00f6reli de\u011fer\u201d i\u015flemlerine (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birbirine g\u00f6re performans fark\u0131na oynayan stratejiler) bak\u0131labilir. 2025\u2019te t\u00fcketici ihtiyari harcamalara (zorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim) ve teknoloji endekslerine ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemlerin, a\u011f\u0131r sanayi veya ula\u015f\u0131mla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olanlara g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, enerji belirsizli\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerinde teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir endekste uzun (al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc) ve sanayi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir endekste k\u0131sa (sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyon i\u00e7eren bir \u201c\u00e7ift i\u015flem\u201din (pairs trade: iki enstr\u00fcmanda e\u015f zamanl\u0131 uzun-k\u0131sa pozisyon) iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 ve K\u00f6rfez sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 k\u00fcresel arz\u0131 g\u00fcnde 10 milyon varil (%12) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; ancak fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %60\u2019la s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji yo\u011funlu\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fcme darbesini azalt\u0131yor; oynakl\u0131k, risk primi ve g\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44875","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44875"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44875\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}