BNY, ABD dolar\u0131 hareketlerinin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte (Q2) \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme tercihlerine y\u00f6n verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Buna g\u00f6re \u201cD\u00fcnyan\u0131n Geri Kalan\u0131\u201d (ROW) hisse endeksi, son bir y\u0131lda ABD dolar endeksiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ili\u015fki g\u00f6sterdi. BNY, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6neminde ve dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131yla, ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n dolar ile birlikte sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u00d6zg\u00fcrle\u015fme g\u00fcn\u00fc\u201dnden bu yana S&P 500 y\u00fczde 26 y\u00fckselirken, ROW\u2019daki en b\u00fcy\u00fck 20 \u015firket y\u00fczde 13 artt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca S&P 500 ile ROW endeksi aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma (farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
BNY, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n para birimlerini etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasan\u0131n, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 2026\u2019da iki\u015fer 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 40 oldu\u011funu, bu fark\u0131n da EUR\/USD paritesini (euro\/dolar kuru) bu hafta 1,15\u2019ten 1,18\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
\u015eirket, geli\u015fen piyasalar\u0131n (emerging markets: geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler) dolar hareketleri ve merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir \u201cgeri besleme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d (kendi kendini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren etkile\u015fim) ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ek m\u00fcdahalelerin, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri (front-end rates: getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadesi) daha s\u0131k\u0131 tutabilece\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re bu \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme kararlar\u0131nda en kritik de\u011fi\u015fken ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n izleyece\u011fi rota. Dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc, uluslararas\u0131 hisselerin mi yoksa ABD i\u00e7i hisselerin mi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde belirleyecek. Piyasa y\u00fckseli\u015fi ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri ABD hisselerinin ROW endeksini belirgin \u015fekilde geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ROW endeksinin de son bir y\u0131lda dolar endeksiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir korelasyon (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte hareket \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc; ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc: biri y\u00fckselirken di\u011feri d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminde) g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n arkas\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 beklentileri bulunuyor. Piyasa \u015fu anda ECB\u2019den 2026\u2019da iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklerken, ABD\u2019de ge\u00e7en haftaki beklentinin biraz \u00fczerindeki enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in faiz indirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30\u2019a geriledi. Bu politika fark\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,15\u2019ten 1,18\u2019e do\u011fru itti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n se\u00e7ili para birimleri sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) \u00fczerinde opsiyonlar\u0131n (opsiyon: belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) do\u011frudan pozisyon alma yolu olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. DXY \u015fu s\u0131ralar 105,5 civar\u0131nda. Zay\u0131f dolar, uluslararas\u0131 hisse ETF\u2019lerine (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) destek verebilir; bu \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Tersine, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ABD hisselerinin \u00fcst\u00fcn performans\u0131n\u0131 uzatabilir.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 ile ROW endeksleri aras\u0131ndaki farka odaklanan opsiyon stratejileri de de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o sezonunda (earnings season: \u015firketlerin finansal sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem) CEO\u2019lar\u0131n arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 (supply shocks: maliyet\/tedarik kaynakl\u0131 ani bozulmalar) y\u00f6netme ve k\u00e2r marj\u0131n\u0131 (margins: sat\u0131\u015flara g\u00f6re k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k) korumaya ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirmeleri piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u00e7in kritik olacak. ABD \u015firket g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde zay\u0131flama sinyali, uluslararas\u0131 piyasalara y\u00f6nelimi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fen piyasalar taraf\u0131 daha karma\u015f\u0131k. Para birimlerini desteklemek i\u00e7in merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi riski, yerel faizleri y\u00fcksek tutuyor; bu durum hisseler i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen t\u00fcrden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar\u0131n, geli\u015fen piyasa ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde olumsuz etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada pusula yine dolar: BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re Q2\u2019de \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme karar\u0131n\u0131 DXY belirleyecek. Dolar zay\u0131flarsa ROW\/uluslararas\u0131 hisseler, g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse ABD hisseleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; ayr\u0131\u015fma opsiyon f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44874"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44874\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44874"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}